The two major wars of Europe (the Northwest Conflict and the War of the Balkans) continue unabated. It seems a great many predictions put forward by de Oorlog and its staff have come to pass, although (or perhaps because) the leaders of Europe did not heed the warnings at the time. To wit:
* As predicted, England's rejection of the French offer of peace in 1904 and subsequent withdrawal was effective suicide for the English, while benefiting Russia tremendously.
* Austria and Italy's inability to see how closely their fates were tied in the current climate has led to the downfall of both powers. Initially very strong nations, since they have refused to stick together both nations' fortunes have plummeted, and fast.
* Germany was able to take advantage of his highly dynamic position and his considerable tactical prowess and grow into a major European power in the blink of an eye.
* Without resistance from the West, the Eastern Juggernaut expands rapidly, now controlling Russia, Turkey, most of Austria-Hungary, the entire Balkans, and most of Scandinavia.
Let it not be said that de Oorlog did not predict the downfall of all central powers (Germany, Italy, and Austria-Hungary) if they are unable to organize resistance to the Juggernaut, which will now only pick up speed! For that is where Europe could be headed if the Western conflict cannot be resolved within the coming year...
The Northwest Conflict (or Anglo-French War)
Not too much has changed here: France and England continue to negotiate the fallout of England's refusal of the peace treaty offered in 1904. There is some maneuvering, but little decisive action. Has France gone soft? Indeed, the rumours have it that another treaty, another offer of peace, is being prepared. How will this situation resolve? Will England be able to make a laughing-stock out of an indecisive France, or will they rush headfirst into a rapid demise? Will France return Norway to English ownership, as promised last year?
Germany appears to have decided against peace, as military movements in the German navy appear to be mobilizing for war. Can Germany afford a war with his French neighbours? Does the Kaiser have the resources to fight Italy, Austria-Hungary, and France at the same time even as his situation in the South grows ever more dramatic? (After all, Russia is now within firing range of German-occupied Vienna, and Turkey has made it clear he will be gunning for Trieste, whether Germany attempts to claim it or not... the Juggernaut is quickly approaching German lines.)
Realistically, Germany does not have enough forces to make headway against France, but he could choose to create a deadlock across the French/German border, which will last until one of the Eastern nations decides to attack the Kaiser's exposed backside. Not a terribly appealing prospect, but the Kaiser has made similar mistakes in past wars and is therefore at least somewhat likely to repeat the past.
Russia, meanwhile finds growth in Sweden and looks to be able to build even more in the near future: Budapest has most likely been promised as a prize for the Tzar in the South, and in the meantime here in the North the Tzar has extremely good odds of capturing Norway and Denmark in the coming year (particularly since a move to the Baltic at this stage would give Russia incredible negotiating and military power over Germany). How will the balance of power shift if this happens? What will the Tzar do with his newfound strength: two or three extra armies will significantly alter his negotiating power in the South for the years to come...
The Balkan War
In the Southeast, the fighting grows ever more fierce as Germany finds sufficient leverage to twist Austria-Hungary's arm into a combined attack on Italy. In the last two years, with his invasion of Vienna and Venice, the Kaiser has pierced the hulls of both Austria and Italy's ships and sent both Powers into a rapid decline. Now it seems unlikely he won't control Vienna, Venice, and Trieste for the next few years. Without organized resistance to the wave of German shock troops, the Kaiser seems likely to overwhelm the entire region. Can Austria-Hungary, Russia, and Turkey manage to organize a defense against him, or will Germany continue to dominate?
One thing is certain: the new Kaiser does not disappoint! His cutthroat and aggressive approach to military strategy has taken Germany from one of the weakest Powers (c.f. 1903) to a rival to the largest forces in Europe in only two years, and his military thrust shows no signs of slowing down. He has options for serious growth here in the Southeast, if he can move into Austria-Hungary's territory fast enough to get there before Russia and Turkey arrive en force. Can he win this race? All eyes are on Trieste...
Russia is also on the scene, but it seems the Tzar's cowardice is in the driving seat here, not rational tactical thought. Russia's position in mainland Europe is weak, overextended, and overexposed, while Russian troops carefully hold back from any potentially useful strategic positions, allowing his opponents to take the initiative when they decide to do so.
The Tzar appears to be too afraid to do anything to change a situation which has left him a) entirely exposed to Turkey, while b) giving valuable Austrian cities to both Germany and Turkey, and c) producing not a single gain for Russia since 1901. Without additional military resources and more aggressive negotiation, the Tzar looks poised to fall behind his neighbours very quickly in the Balkan theatre: he will need to learn to both cover his interests and move aggressively where opportunities present themselves, or Russia will not survive long in the current volatile climate. This War is not for the weak-willed, sadly...
Italy moves into a naval offense on Turkey. However, alas, the Popessa has waited far too long. An attack which would have been devastating in 1901 (or even 1902) looks impotent and futile in 1905. The Popessa will need to be both careful and aggressive in the coming years, leveraging her available allies for all they are worth. Italy may yet recover, but all depends on careful play and smart diplomacy in the coming two or three years. One mistake and Italy, unable to hold her borders, will fall.
(One thing is certain: Italy and Austria-Hungary will need to cooperate from now on, or they will both be doomed to extinction. This was true before: it is doubly true now, plain for all to see.)
Austria-Hungary's situation now grows ever more desperate, with Germany invading from the West and Turkey arriving to finish them off from the South. Two possibilities present themselves for the resolution of this situation:
The First, Wherein Austria-Hungary Recovers and Survives
Austria-Hungary must find a way to leverage their diplomatic position into progress for their own nation. Fortunately, at least three factions have strong vested interests in Austrian survival: Italy (who needs an ally desperately for her own survival), Russia (who wants Austria to survive as long as possible instead of giving their bases to Germany or Turkey, who will be Russia's enemies in the coming years), and all the Western powers (France, Germany, and England), who should be able to see by now how Austrian demise guarantees the supremacy of either Russia or Turkey as we move into the endgame, and thus logically benefit tremendously from Austrian survival. Germany, in particular, appears to be the logical next target for the Juggernaut if Austria is to fall.
If Austria-Hungary can help one of these powers wage war on their enemies, they can find a way to become useful allies instead of a tempting snack. They could help Germany move through Trieste into Albania or Serbia, support Russia into Vienna, or support Turkey into Romania. All these options give Austria a chance at survival and regrowth. However, the main benefit would be for the Power taking advantage of Austrian leverage, for they would ultimately have the upper hand over their two other competitors, which could make the difference between losing and winning in the midgame. Germany, Russia, and Turkey are currently about evenly matched: with Austrian help, one can gain the upper hand over the others and grow to dominance, taking control of the entire Balkan region. Who will it be? Who will accept Austria-Hungary as a force multiplier to win the upper hand while the option still exists?
(Of course, Austria-Hungary will also almost certainly be supporting Italy into Venice sooner or later this year, as it's the only way to secure Trieste from Germany.)
What's the other option?
The Second, Wherein Austria-Hungary is Greatly Diminished and Cut into Minor Colonies
If, on the other hand, the three powers are satisfied with a three-way headlock, they need to find a scheme to partition Austria-Hungary in such a way that their competitors do not receive a greater share than they. This is difficult but not impossible: the writers of de Oorlog were approached recently by an anonymous intelligence offer requesting some neutral advice on a fair partitioning of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire. (After all, such an agreement coming from a neutral source is far more likely to hold sway with all the leaders than a partisan offer.)
Here, then, is the way such a treaty would operate. This is the only way to create a situation that is potentially useful for all three major Powers without destabilizing the entire region in the favour of one or another:de Oorlog's tactical wing has been hard at work at this solution, and is proud to present it in this issue.
* First, Vienna must be returned to Austrian hands: the Russian army in Galicia will support them there in the Spring.
* Since the Austrian army is busy recapturing Vienna, Germany will be able to support Venice into Trieste, reducing Austria to a single unit and gaining a build for Germany.
* Finally, Turkey will support Russia into Budapest in the Fall, producing a much-needed build for Russia (without which the balance of forces is laughably against Russia's good future).
The Austro-Hungarian empire has thus been partitioned: Turkey gains a build from Serbia (we'll overlook the capture of Greece as a separate matter), Germany gains a build from Trieste, and Russia gains a build from Budapest.
This is the only configuration which does not give one country overwhelmingly strong odds against one of the others; the continued existence of the Austrian unit in Vienna allows a "peacekeeper" to maintain this uneasy balance. A fair three-way split of the Balkans, to the benefit of all parties.
Overall, however, it is Turkey who is the most likely to come out ahead. With likely gains in Austria, certain conquests against Russia whenever he chooses to take them, and possible (but less likely) advances against an Italy foolish enough to let the Sultan into the Mediterranean, Turkey is an a supremely untouchable position. Even if all of Turkey's current neighbours were to suddenly ally against the Sultan, Turkey would not be threatened: there is no danger on any front for him. On the other side of the same coin, Turkey has options for growth on all sides. Turkey, therefore, is one of the strongest contenders for the victory in this game: it is just a matter of how quickly or how slowly the Sultan decides to exercise those options, for his nation is on the very brink of explosive and unstoppable growth -- as soon as Romania and Sevastopol fall to Turkish forces, Vienna, Trieste, Warsaw and Moscow will be quickly overrun, giving Turkey a force of about 12 units, at which point only complete coordination on the remaining board (an unlikely feat) could prevent a Turkish attempt at victory.
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