1905

Italy and Austria-Hungary feast on the remains of . . . a train?

England is not impressed with the competition. Such a very classy Queen.

SPRING 1905

France negotiates with Austria-Hungary. What are they plotting?

Turkey and Italy in last minute talks - can peace be found on the edge of Europe?

The Queen and the Czarina laughing at the misfortunes of other nations?

France seems pretty happy . . .

Russia advises on the ways of war.

A very casual conference?

France's plotting or just listening to Italy?

Russia discusses their moves in a moment of privacy.

This is an Army.

This is a fleet. 

This is also a fleet. Move over Planking, the new hip thing is fleeting.

East meets West. Will they meet in the middle?

FALL 1905

Goodbye Turkey, you will be missed.

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving vol. 4 (1904)

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving

vol. 4 (1904)

War is upon Europe now: every nation has dipped her toe into the cauldron of strife and death, fought, conquered, or lost.

In the East, the basic momentum developed in 1902-1903 continues on its resolute path:

Turkey holds on to Constantinople with an iron grip, and survives another Italian assault due to Russian support. Turkey looks likely to live to see another day after all. However, any planning Turkey is engaged in during 1904-1905 is likely long-term, as short-term concerns for Turkey are at the behest of the Sultan's neighbours. On the upside, Italy's falling fortunes could provide an opening for Turkish resurgence and regrowth.

Italy continues his assault on Turkey, only to switch gears to attack Greece in the Fall. 1904 is a painful year, as Italy's only success is his move to the Ionian (which the Austrian fleet neglected to defend). With the loss of Venice and further progress against Turkey looking less and less likely, Italy has some difficult decisions to make. As predicted earlier, his position against Austria-Hungary is a rapidly-deteriorating one, and if France gets involved, he could be looking at the loss of Smyrna, Rome or Naples, and Tunis in 1905. How will Italy find a way to turn his fortunes around? His position is not obvious: some clever thinking will be needed here if Italy is not to share Turkey's fate. 

Russia continues the trench war against Germany, but on this front nothing is likely to move for some time. Growing gently, Russia is finally recovering from her near-disaster early game. The extra unit build in Sevastopol will give Russia extra leverage in Anatolia, putting the Czarina on equal footing with her competitors in the region. A recovery of Smyrna by Turkish forces in the Fall is possible if Russia continues to support the Sultan.

Austria-Hungary continues her aggressive and dominant streak. Of the last three Chestnut Diplomacy games, two ended in Austrian victories and another saw Austria as the dominant power in Europe for half the War. The Empress could be well on the way to perpetuating that trend. However, Austria-Hungary is seriously feeling her lack of a naval force. Although in terms of units she outnumbers Turkey and Italy put together (even with the potential inclusion of the French fleet in the Western Mediterranean!), she is hopelessly outnumbered on the sea. So far, she has not even been able to leave the Adriatic, and her naval presence is tenuous at best. However, if Austria can move against Italy quickly enough to control the Mediterranean before France settles his war with England, Austria-Hungary will quickly become the strongest power on the board.

In the West, however, things are more dynamic, changing rapidly from year to year:

Germany continues to shrink slowly, and is now reduced from the strongest Western power to the weakest. No obvious conquests present themselves for the German: he will have to wait this one out and look for his opening in the years to come unless he can make peace with Russia quickly. However, what will such a peace cost him?

France moves back into her starting position as the leading power in the West at six units. The new fleet build in Brest--as well as the fleet ransacking Edinburgh--means that France will be gunning for England in the near future: this conflict will be burning hot for a few years yet. France always needs to put England out of commission before becoming a globally effective power: to do otherwise is to risk disaster from the sea. In the absence of war with Germany, France's problem in Diplomacy is fairly straight-ahead: how can the English Queen be knocked off her pedestal and forced to bend her knee? 

In last year's War, France accomplished this through force and diplomacy, first land on the British Isles (as our France has just done), and then turn the British into a vassal state fighting her wars abroad under French colours. From there, the road to victory for France is short (and lies directly through German lands).

However, this France will also need to worry about potential Austrian hegemony: after all, if the Mediterranean becomes unified under the red flag, France is the logical next target. In that case, France often finds it beneficial to support Italy or Turkey against Austria, just to prevent this situation. 

The question, then, is: which matter will be settled first? That is the President's concern.

England, however, is no pushover. Although the Queen made a few errors in 1904 (and thereby lost Edinburgh), she traded that unit for a much improved position. She now holds the North Sea, the Mid-Atlantic, and therefore can take the Channel at her leisure. That fleet in the Mid-Atlantic will require at least two, and maybe three, French units to handle, since it can retreat to three different French Centres (Portugal, Spain, and Brest) if France decides to dislodge her.

Unless the French fleet in Edinburgh can find a way to link up with its fellows, it will be forced out and probably forced to disband by the end of the year.

Lots of difficult choices all around. What surprises will 1905 bring?

1904

SPRING 1904

 

 

 

FALL 1904



de Oorlog tot de Beschaving vol. 3 (1903)

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving

vol. 3 (1903)

Minor skirmishes turn into full-blown battles as Europe totters closer and closer to the edge of disaster. Bombs fall, soldiers gird their bayonets, and intelligence networks spend sleepless nights poring over incomprehensible reports from the front.

Big things are just over the horizon.

The Invasion of Turkey

In the East, Italy's concerted push towards Turkey turns into a full-blown invasion. In the Spring, Italian fleets sink the Turkish ships in the Aegean, and in the Fall Italian divisions march into Smyrna. The first major invasion of this war is under foot.

In reaction, Austria moves into Bulgaria, and Russia claims Ankara.

This is a dramatic turn of events: Turkey loses three units in one blow. Never has a nation been massacred thus. These events are sobering: how can any nation not look at Turkey's fate and ponder her own fragile mortality?

Who will Turkey turn to now, to hold on to her last shred of territory? Constantinople, her last bastion, is surrounded and besieged on all sides.

Russia continues to play a minor role in this conflict, but moves rather more confidently in the North, reacting to Germany's invasion of Prussia in 1902 (and the breaking of their 1901 pact) by forcing Germany out of the Baltic for good. 

It is not clear, however, what the goal of this conflict may be. Neither Russia nor Germany has much to gain from a war on this front. Historically, both Russia and Germany have more to lose than to gain from such a continental war. Nevertheless, these two powers will find it difficult to disengage peacefully.

Austria continues to benefit the most from the current situation. Russia is a distant threat at most; Turkey toothless for the moment. Italy, her traditional biggest threat, lies almost completely exposed, the King's forces committed to the Turkish war. Germany is safely at arm's-length. In 1904, no one can hurt Austria.

With her sixth build, Austria threatens to expand her zone of influence to the naval theatre, and cements her hold on her territory. An Austria at six units and control of the Adriatic can turn into an unstoppable force, as we have seen in two out of the three last Great Wars. Further growth for this powerhouse Empire appears to be in the cards.

Italy's situation, however, is probably the most interesting. The King has access to many different possibilities in 1903, and his choices will be illuminating. 

With his three units in place against Turkey, he is likely to continue to make gains in the Anatolian peninsula. However, he will need to enter careful negotiations with his neighbours if he wishes to make those gains permanent.

The smartest ploy in his toolkit would be to offer Ankara to Turkey. By supporting the Turkish fleet into Ankara, he could move the fleet out of its central position (Constantinople). This would accomplish several aims at once: 

• anger Russia, 
• further reduce Turkish influence on what happens next,
• remove any kind of threat to his army in Smyrna, and 
• leave Constantinople for him to claim.

In this hypothetical scenario, the Italian fleets would then move Aegean to Constantinople and Eastern Med. to the Aegean. From this position, Italy could claim one more build. The Sultan would no longer be able to threaten Smyrna or the Mediterranean, his fleet safely trapped in Ankara. Furthermore, Italy could then move to crush Ankara at his leisure, as well as make supported attacks on Bulgaria from the Aegean.

However, the King needs to be mindful of his relationship to Austria, lest he lose control of the Mediterranean (his metaphorical backyard) to the Empress for good. His fleets still outnumber hers. For now.

The Western Triangle

In the West, the situation develops more slowly. France, once seen as the dominant Western power, has first shrunk (by ceding Belgium to Germany) and then wasted his initiative advantage against England by hesitating for several turns.

Now he has given up his position against England in favour of sending a fleet into the Northern waters of the Norwegian Sea. It is an axiom of Diplomacy that a lone unit cannot accomplish much. If he cannot find a way to put this fleet into a position where it can be supported by other fleets (whether his own, or an ally's), France will be effectively fighting this war a unit down.

However, France has also finally brought his Portuguese army back into the realm of relevance. Not immediately obvious, perhaps, but this army could be used to invade Belgium with great ease.

Germany, sitting on six Centres with only five units, quite predictably finds himself unable to hold on to his expansive territory. Not an unexpected loss for Germany: it is typical in Diplomacy that when a country overreaches her grasp, a year or two of contraction follows.

A very clever maneuver -- an attempted convoy to Denmark -- would have allowed Germany to hold Denmark, the Baltic, and make supported attacks on the English position in Sweden (or convoy across the North Sea into England). Unfortunately for the Kaiser, the attempted convoy was prevented by combined Russian-English forces.

Losing Denmark to England, Germany is now back to five units. 

England, at six units, is now the rising power in the West. Her position in the Nordic area is impregnable due to Russian cooperation, and France has almost entirely maneuvered out of her threat zone. 

If England is going to reverse the balance of power and seize the offensive, 1904 will be the year where the Queen shifts gears from the defensive to take a dominant position vis-a-vis her two other Western neighbours.

She has some very interesting offensive options against France due to her fleet build in Liverpool, or can put a lot of pressure on Germany by claiming the North Sea.

An aside:

Ah, the North Sea!

The treasure of the Calhamer map.

There are a handful of territories on the map which border four Supply Centres, and a single territory which borders five. The North Sea, however, has the truly unique characteristic of given its proprietor access to no fewer than six Supply Centres:

• Norway (English)
• Denmark (English)
• Edinburgh (English)
• London (English)
• Holland (German)
• Belgium (French)

It is this unique characteristic which makes the North Sea the single most valuable territory on the Calhamer map. 

Holding it is absolutely key for England, Germany, and France. In 1903, the North Sea was hotly contested, with English forces bouncing out a combined Franco-German assault. 

It seems this year even more clever designs on the North Sea may be brewing. Who will seize the upper hand in the Western Triangle?