de Oorlog tot de Beschaving
vol. 5 (1906)
1906 is the year of the Tzar! Russia grows by leaps and bounds, claiming the entirety of the Nordic regions, solidifying his grasp on the South, and building two new armies as well as a fleet in the North. In addition, with Turkey on his side and two future gains in his lap (Vienna and Berlin), Russia is also the most likely power to grow further this year.
Starting in 1907, the War is dangerously close to entering its endgame phase: once Germany is eliminated, if each major power has not managed to secure all its borders, the slowest to reinforce his or her borders will be the first to drop.
However, as we have seen in last year's Great War, there is also the possibility of a "false" endgame: the current conflict around Germany will almost certainly create the opportunity for one of the minor powers (Scotland, Italy, or Austria-Hungary) to grow back into a major power. This happened in the last Great War in the cases of Germany, Italy, and Turkey, who each found the opportunity in a major war between the giants to climb from one unit back up to strongest or second strongest nation in Europe. It is difficult to predict which power it may be, however, as it depends greatly on who prevails in the major European conflicts.
The Juggernaut
Now it is plain to see why studying the rules which govern the fortune of the Juggernaut (as published by de Oorlog last year) was vital in this situation:
The situation has just developed into precisely the set of conditions described by those theorists quoted last year. As stated by the writers here at de Oorlog, "Those who do not learn the lessons of history are bound to repeat them." To wit, the predictions made by de Oorlog a year ago on the nature of the Juggernaut, summarized:
1. In the presence of a strong Russia-Turkey alliance, if Italy and Austria are foolish enough to attack each other (in our case, Italy supported Turkey into Greece, and Austria supported Germany into Venice) they will both be destroyed very quickly, first Austria and then Italy.
2. As soon as the Austrian Home Cities are captured by the Juggernaut, it will pick up speed, with Russia rapidly expanding to conquer most of Northern Europe. (We have seen last year the effects of Russia entering Budapest and Turkey capturing Serbia, which begins this "steamroller" effect.)
3. However, even as Russia expands at the speed of light, Turkey will be left in the dust. For Turkey, the Juggernaut almost immediately loses its appeal once Serbia (and maybe Trieste) are captured. The only possible advantage Turkey can gain from an alliance with Russia from now on is support into Trieste. Beyond that, Turkey has maxed out the benefits of the Juggernaut and taken all he can: from now on, Russia will race to victory, and Turkey no longer draws any benefit from an alliance with the Tzar, as they no longer have any common interests.
4. The main beneficiary of the Juggernaut in the West is almost always France, whose neighbours are so weakened by the Eastern threat that the French Empire can easily dominate the Western edge of the board.
5. Absent a combined resistance to the Juggernaut from the remaining Western powers, the Juggernaut is able to dominate the Central Powers, destroying Austria-Hungary, then Germany, then Italy. All but the Westernmost powers (England and France) are doomed if they cannot operate together, for by now they are being crushed from two sides and quickly collapse. Only a massive and thorough coordination of all five Western powers can stop a Juggernaut in full swing.
6. From now on, as long as the Juggernaut holds, Russia will grow while Turkey stagnates (or, at most, picks up one or two more supply centres). Consequently, the next step is equally predictable: once the imbalance between Turkey and Russia reaches a critical point, Russia can simply push South with superior force, invading Turkey to win the game.
The Juggernaut has been so thoroughly studied and documented, that you can see how accurately all of these theoretical predictions hold even in our own unstable political climate. The last two predictions have not come to pass yet, but if the political climate cannot be changed, they too will prove accurate, as they have through hundreds of other Great Wars.
The writers of de Oorlog would like to urge all our readers to study our previous issue on the Juggernaut, and consider how they might influence their nation's rulers to consider the advice therein seriously and thoroughly.
The Juggernaut in 1907 and onwards
1907 is a pivotal year, as the Juggernaut enjoys the full of extent of its victories (well, for Russia, anyway), and simultaneously reaches its most critical point:
Beyond this point, only the capture of Trieste unites Russia and Turkey. In all other senses, the Juggernaut has served its purpose and reached its final conclusion. From now on, their alliance having borne the fruits that it can, Russia and Turkey become instead rivals for the final victory (although in many wars, both parties will prefer to pretend this isn't the case, hoping to draw out their side of the alliance until they're ready for the stab).
Who will maneuver better? Who will be able to manipulate the other more effectively? To him will go the shot at victory over all of Europe.
The Powers of Europe
With France, Scotland, Austria-Hungary, and Italy forming an alliance against the Eastern threat, only Germany's decision hangs in the balance against the Juggernaut. Sadly, Germany's position is not too optimistic.
Last year, the partitioning of Austria-Hungary proceeded exactly as described in de Oorlog: Turkey claimed Serbia, Russia claimed Budapest, and Germany took Trieste. The only difference is that Germany exchanged Vienna for Venice, but the difference is largely cosmetic, given Germany's disband in Trieste.
The next country to be partitioned (assuming a continuation of trends established in 1906) will be Germany: Trieste will go to Turkey, Vienna and Berlin to Russia, Kiel to Scotland, and Munich to France. Unless something changes dramatically in the diplomatic arena, this outcome is fairly easy to predict, as no one has the means to change it:
Germany faces an extremely difficult future, with the Kaiser's units are committed to full-on war with France in the North and Italy in the South. In both theatres, Germany does not have the forces necessary to make any gains. (This can be easily proven by a simple calculation: even if all the units facing Germany were to simply hold and support each other, Germany would be unable to capture any territory.) This war is strictly one of attrition for Germany: if the Juggernaut does not advance towards German soil, he will be slowly crushed by Italy, Austria, and France.
On the other hand, the Eastern front has been completely abandoned by Germany. If the Juggernaut advances, taking their logical next move and capturing Trieste, Vienna, and then Berlin, then Germany will collapse immediately. Will it be a slow death for Germany from the West, or a rapid one from the East?
What can Germany do? For advice, we have turned to a political strategist outside our immediate circle by the name of E. Tuovinen:
"Germany should be delaying the end-game here; endgames are fatal to central Powers, they basically have to make themselves into corner Powers (by conquest) before then to survive. Germany does not hold any natural borders except Switzerland, which makes it a given that he'll be a goner very quickly if the players decide to grind the game into trench warfare around Central Europe. Germany's best bet for buying time would probably be to relinquish his Italian holdings, make peace with France and support Italy in a reconquest of Austrian territory; care should be taken about the French border, of course, but France should be amiable if he's playing the best game he can as well. This Italian thing would only be a delaying action, though; just waiting for the opposition to makes mistakes that give him an opening. Germany achieves his best shot at victory by running the delaying action in Austria, moving into the Nordic area with French support (mostly armies, fleet or two in the Baltic), and then killing off Italy with French and Turkish help and Russia with Turkish help. The idea would be for Germany to encourage France into emphasizing fleets and army movement through Piedmont into Italy, while Germany safeguards himself by building armies and becomes a core gear in the middle of Europe, one around which the other Powers flow. Germany should set up Turkey and France in Italy carefully, maximizing the amount of forces both put in the area; he'll be capable of killing Russia himself if he succeeds in talking France into giving him some western space, but the advance won't be very stable if France and Turkey don't have shared stakes and considerable amounts of material locked down against each other.
In short, Germany's fate depends on Russia, as usually happens in Diplomacy games. When Russia fares well, Germany's fate is poor, and vice-versa. For a German victory in the end-game, he needs to arrange Russia's defeat, turning himself into a corner power. Otherwise, as you say, his fate is pretty much locked in: if Turkey and Russia leave him to fight against France and Scotland on his own, he'll slowly collapse, as his position isn't tenable, and he has no realistic conquests. On the other hand, if Russia and Turkey approach to 'support' him, they must move through Trieste, Vienna, and maybe even Berlin, and the resulting disbands will do him in very quickly, giving you exactly the 'partitioning' you've described. Finally, of course, if Turkey and Russia purposely attack him, the outcome will be much the same."
The Kaiser is clever and ambitious... but can he pull off such a maneuver? Only time will tell what Germany will do next. Only one thing is certain: the political climate has to change
dramatically, and immediately, for Germany to have any chance at survival. By default, he becomes the next victim of the East/West war: he must do something to change its tide.
France is effectively acting as one unit with Scotland, as their interests are currently perfectly aligned: a war between the two powers would quickly cost them both one or two Centres, slowing down France for a turn or two and removing Scotland from the game. These two are in a strong but predictable position: they have the forces and the tactical position to simply hold the front and wait for something to change. The tactical situation around the North Sea is such that no one can make any realistic gains; although if gains do take place they will go to France and Scotland, due to their superior numbers and position. (France and Scotland have offensive options against a number of German or Russian bases, but the reverse is not true: Germany and Russia can only manage an offensive against Denmark or Holland, both of which are easily defended.)
France and Scotland's best interests, therefore, are to simply continue pushing against the front, inching forward. Whatever happens in this theatre, however, will be relatively slow.
Italy and Austria-Hungary are similarly in a forced alliance: whether they like it or not, they must work together or both quickly fall. As long as they support each other, their situation is stable. Their game now relies and waiting for circumstances to create an opportunity for them to regrow into major powers. Which circumstances favour which powers?
Scotland cannot make any gains on her own, so she needs to ally with a larger power willing to dedicate itself to helping Scotland regain territory. Her gains, however, will have to come from either Russia or Germany, via her army. In the more long-term view, therefore, Scotland's revival depends on a successful attack against Russia, either by Germany or Turkey.
Italy's growth would come from conquests in either Turkey or Austria-Hungary once Venice is reclaimed. Therefore Italy benefits most from an effective war by Russia against Turkey: as in conventional Diplomacy theory, Italy and Russia are natural allies in this situation.
Austria-Hungary needs an opportunity to reclaim some Home Centres in order for revival. Austria would need two factors for regrowth: a successful attack by Turkey on Russia or vice-versa, and an alliance with Germany dedicated to pushing back the Juggernaut. (Austria-Hungary could be very helpful to Germany in holding Trieste and Vienna in exchange for such an opportunity.)
The leaders of Scotland, Italy, and Austria-Hungary will need to use their diplomatic skills to arrange these conditions by influencing the larger powers as best they can. If they can convince one of the major powers that the conditions mentioned above are worthwhile endeavours, a revival is highly likely for that nation.
Russia is simultaneously the power most likely to grow (and thus effectively the most powerful nation) and the most fragile. The Tzar is in the strongest position on the board as long as Turkey does not move against him, since he has guaranteed builds from Vienna and Berlin whenever he chooses to take them, giving him an estimated strength of ten units. On the other hand, in the case of a drawn-out endgame, Russia would be the first to go, since he would be forced to defend on multiple fronts where he cannot make progress. In that outcome, Russia is ground down between his neighbours: Germany (if he is still around), France, Scotland, and Turkey can simply all apply force until the Tzar's fronts crumble.
Once more, we turn to strategist E. Tuovinen, who writes:
"The Tzar also knows that he cannot achieve a victory without an attack on Turkey, so he needs to maneuver into an advantageous position in the South before Turkey can do the same. The ideal play for Russian victory would be to dedicate enough forces to hold the Northern Front (about four units would be necessary here, depending on the German situation), and then build in the South before Turkey can make a move against him. To do this, the Tzar needs two things: he needs a strong Italy dedicated to fighting Turkey, and a Turkey willing to trust him enough to send all his fleet (fully half his force) West in the Mediterranean. Once Turkey is thus prompted to leave his defensive positions (most importantly the Black Sea) and tangles swords with Italy, Russia can sweep in and force Turkey South off the map.
However, in the case of a weak Italy overrun by Turkey, the situation would reverse: with Turkey building on his borders, Russia would be the sitting duck. Therefore, Russia needs to cultivate an alliance with Italy if he wishes to win the game."
Turkey is an optimal position in terms of defense, with literally no liabilities or threats in any direction. However, he is also the least likely to make any lasting gains: Trieste is his only available conquest in the next two years or so, and he will have trouble holding it unless he has full Russian support. Turkish victory in this game depends on either bold, powerful moves made immediately or slow, careful manipulation of the Russian Tzar. In the words of E. Tuovinen:
"The Turkish endgame here is incredibly simple compared to any other nation. He must stabilize the rest of the board as much as possible, keeping Germany and Italy in the game as long as possible, and convince Russia to keep clearing his Southern border until his units are engaged on the Western front. Then he can move North into Russia, putting himself in position for the final blow of the Turkish strike. If he can pull it off before the Western situation resolves one way or another, he has a better chance at victory than any other power on the board. If the Western situation resolves itself first, then Turkey is doomed to stagnation and a slow demise when Russia reinforces against him for the endgame."
Conclusions
Now we can see just how much the fate of Europe has changed over the last two years:
Whereas in 1904 and 1905, France dominated Europe, and had the most likely chances of long-term victory, in the modern climate this has changed that a great deal. The Juggernaut has had its expected effect (due to the lack of resistance by the Western allies), and moves quickly to eliminate the Central Powers (Austria, Germany, then Italy). This means that the decision point of the final war has now moved to the Eastern hemisphere, outside the reach of the French. (This circumstance appears much like last year's game, in which Turkey pulled off a victory despite an utterly dominant English power in the West, and England could do nothing to prevent it.)
In the coming year or two, the outcome of the war will be settled by one factor, one major decision area -- this one front outlines where the game will find its resolution:
The Russian-Turkish border.
The winner on this front will carry it all. If Russia manages to reinforce his Southern border before their alliance collapses, he will survive into the endgame. On the other hand, if the Tzar can fool Turkey into sending all his forces into the Mediterranean and be in position to attack before Turkey makes conquests in the Sea, he will have the best shot at victory on the board.
Likewise, if Turkey can convince Russia to invest his forces in a Western direction, or to disband those forces the Tzar needs for defense, then the Sultan will be the most likely to carry the victory.
The way the two giants of the Juggernaut decide to handle their mutual border will establish the probabilities of the endgame for all of us.
