de Oorlog tot de Beschaving vol. 4 (1904)

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving

vol. 4 (1904)

War is upon Europe now: every nation has dipped her toe into the cauldron of strife and death, fought, conquered, or lost.

In the East, the basic momentum developed in 1902-1903 continues on its resolute path:

Turkey holds on to Constantinople with an iron grip, and survives another Italian assault due to Russian support. Turkey looks likely to live to see another day after all. However, any planning Turkey is engaged in during 1904-1905 is likely long-term, as short-term concerns for Turkey are at the behest of the Sultan's neighbours. On the upside, Italy's falling fortunes could provide an opening for Turkish resurgence and regrowth.

Italy continues his assault on Turkey, only to switch gears to attack Greece in the Fall. 1904 is a painful year, as Italy's only success is his move to the Ionian (which the Austrian fleet neglected to defend). With the loss of Venice and further progress against Turkey looking less and less likely, Italy has some difficult decisions to make. As predicted earlier, his position against Austria-Hungary is a rapidly-deteriorating one, and if France gets involved, he could be looking at the loss of Smyrna, Rome or Naples, and Tunis in 1905. How will Italy find a way to turn his fortunes around? His position is not obvious: some clever thinking will be needed here if Italy is not to share Turkey's fate. 

Russia continues the trench war against Germany, but on this front nothing is likely to move for some time. Growing gently, Russia is finally recovering from her near-disaster early game. The extra unit build in Sevastopol will give Russia extra leverage in Anatolia, putting the Czarina on equal footing with her competitors in the region. A recovery of Smyrna by Turkish forces in the Fall is possible if Russia continues to support the Sultan.

Austria-Hungary continues her aggressive and dominant streak. Of the last three Chestnut Diplomacy games, two ended in Austrian victories and another saw Austria as the dominant power in Europe for half the War. The Empress could be well on the way to perpetuating that trend. However, Austria-Hungary is seriously feeling her lack of a naval force. Although in terms of units she outnumbers Turkey and Italy put together (even with the potential inclusion of the French fleet in the Western Mediterranean!), she is hopelessly outnumbered on the sea. So far, she has not even been able to leave the Adriatic, and her naval presence is tenuous at best. However, if Austria can move against Italy quickly enough to control the Mediterranean before France settles his war with England, Austria-Hungary will quickly become the strongest power on the board.

In the West, however, things are more dynamic, changing rapidly from year to year:

Germany continues to shrink slowly, and is now reduced from the strongest Western power to the weakest. No obvious conquests present themselves for the German: he will have to wait this one out and look for his opening in the years to come unless he can make peace with Russia quickly. However, what will such a peace cost him?

France moves back into her starting position as the leading power in the West at six units. The new fleet build in Brest--as well as the fleet ransacking Edinburgh--means that France will be gunning for England in the near future: this conflict will be burning hot for a few years yet. France always needs to put England out of commission before becoming a globally effective power: to do otherwise is to risk disaster from the sea. In the absence of war with Germany, France's problem in Diplomacy is fairly straight-ahead: how can the English Queen be knocked off her pedestal and forced to bend her knee? 

In last year's War, France accomplished this through force and diplomacy, first land on the British Isles (as our France has just done), and then turn the British into a vassal state fighting her wars abroad under French colours. From there, the road to victory for France is short (and lies directly through German lands).

However, this France will also need to worry about potential Austrian hegemony: after all, if the Mediterranean becomes unified under the red flag, France is the logical next target. In that case, France often finds it beneficial to support Italy or Turkey against Austria, just to prevent this situation. 

The question, then, is: which matter will be settled first? That is the President's concern.

England, however, is no pushover. Although the Queen made a few errors in 1904 (and thereby lost Edinburgh), she traded that unit for a much improved position. She now holds the North Sea, the Mid-Atlantic, and therefore can take the Channel at her leisure. That fleet in the Mid-Atlantic will require at least two, and maybe three, French units to handle, since it can retreat to three different French Centres (Portugal, Spain, and Brest) if France decides to dislodge her.

Unless the French fleet in Edinburgh can find a way to link up with its fellows, it will be forced out and probably forced to disband by the end of the year.

Lots of difficult choices all around. What surprises will 1905 bring?