de Oorlog tot de Beschaving vol. 2 (1903)

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving

vol. 2 (1903)

Men, women, and children crowd into their basements and prepare for the sound of bombs falling overhead: it seems the prayers of civilians go unheard, for Europe appears to be headed not to a deescalation but rather towards increasing hostilities and even all-out war.

Two major conflicts are the focus of fighting in 1903, dividing Europe into two distinct battlefields. Russia is the dividing line, acting in both theatres... 

The Northwest (or English) Theatre

In the North and West of Europe, the action appears to be centered around England: British troops attempted an invasion of Russia in 1902 (via attacks on Finland and St. Petersburg), and in 1903 the English attack France in the Spring (Holland) and Germany in the Fall (Denmark). Who is England's real enemy? Or is England simply stirring the pot with the point of her sword?

It is difficult to decipher exactly what has happened here:

In the Spring, England disengages from the attack on St. Petersburg and invades Sweden, while orchestrating an attack against France with Germany. The movement of troops puts English forces in range to attack Denmark (via North Sea and Sweden), or to move against France.

Seeing these actions as a prelude to a full-scale invasion of the French Netherlands or their German allies, France moves to answer the threat, engaging in the very first French military action of this war. It seems France has finally been drawn from her peaceful slumber into a potential war!

England is outraged at the success of the French counterattack, which lands a raiding force in Liverpool. The French, however, claim that they is responding to an English conspiracy to destroy peace in the West. (The accusation being that England has instigated a war by convincing Germany to participate in an attack on France.) Will these parties be able to reach a reconciliation, or is there enough blood spilled on either side that the French-English conflict will escalate to full-out war? 

The French message here seems clear enough: it's one part "a conspiracy to break the existing peace will not be tolerated, and taken as a declaration of war," and two parts "don't mess with France!"

The main benefactor of a French-English war would be Russia, who now holds the initiative in the North and is likely to expand very rapidly if England decides to dedicate their forces to a long and slow trench war with France. Expect to see Russian diplomats fanning the war between France and England in 1904, and rubbing their hands with glee as the war escalates! There is no possible downside to this development for Russia.

Germany will need to weigh her options carefully: England appears to be trying to start a war between France and Germany, but British troops are very well positioned for a second attack on Denmark. If Army Kiel can be convinced to attack Holland (or defend Berlin), England can easily capture Denmark, which would put Germany into rapid decline (as the new weakest Power in Europe). 

On the other hand, if Germany and England are working together, with complete trust, moving the German fleet to the Helgoland Bight could make for a combined attack on Holland that will be almost impossible for France to stop. However, to do so, Germany would have to risk both Denmark and Berlin.

Will the Northwest/English theatre resolve peacefully or escalate to all-out war?

The Balkan Theatre

Meanwhile, the real war is raging in the Southeast: here, gathered around Serbia are the forces of Italy, Turkey, Russia, and Austria-Hungary, and the fighting for Greece, Serbia, and Romania is heavy and furious. Vienna, Venice, and Warsaw are also under heavy threat.

The main developments this year, however, are:

1. The full engagement of German forces in this conflict, and

2. the capture of Greece by Turkey.

As we will see, both developments will have a powerful influence on the political climate in the South-East.

Austria-Hungary's powerful offensive offensive is suddenly crippled by the loss of Greece! However, Austria-Hungary's land army is still in a powerful offensive position: their troops have advanced into Ukraine and from there have access to no fewer than four Russian supply bases (Moscow, Warsaw, Romania, and Sevastopol). It is almost inconceivable that Austria-Hungary will not be able to claim at least one of these cities this year.

However, they also have to worry about Germany, Italy and Turkey. Germany appears to be cooperating with Austria (not an unusual alliance in Diplomacy), but if Italy, Russia, and Turkey are allied against them, they will be in serious trouble.

Russia is the most exposed country here, with insufficient strength to hold Sevastopol or Romania without Turkish help. The Tzar's best bet, ultimately, may be to grab as much territory as possible elsewhere so he can build armies in Moscow and/or Sevastopol, thereby securing his Southern front. Otherwise, his only available reinforcements are the army in Prussia (since the Baltic fleet cannot influence events in the South). Capturing one or two territories elsewhere (most likely Sweden, Norway, or Berlin) would allow the Tzar to build in Moscow and Sevastopol and establish a strong border even if he suffers the loss of Romania (which is something he cannot prevent without German cooperation).

Italy has the second best defensive position in the current political climate, with armies in Venice and Rome and fleets controlling the Ionian.  The Austrian disband of Fleet Albania finally gives Italy control of the Mediterranean. Will Italy use her newfound dominance of the seas to establish a safer alliance with Austria or to take Trieste?

The question in Italy's mind should be: "Can I hold the Austrian mainland against Turkey and Russia once Austria falls?" Not an easy calculation, but a necessary one if she is to prosper in the long run.

The most interesting situation in the Balkan theatre this year is Turkey's position. No other nation on the board has Turkey's strong, unbroken lines, easy to reinforce against assault and equally rich in prospects for expansion. With Greece in his hands and a rapidly-diminishing threat from Austria, all the Sultan needs is to keep Italy turned towards Austria in order to quickly dominate the entire South-East.

A hypothetical moveset like the following would be nearly unstoppable as long as the current conflict continues:

Spring 1904

* Army Ankara to Sevastopol

* Fleet Black Sea convoys Ankara to Sevastopol

* Army Constantinople to Bulgaria

* Army Greece supports Army Constantinople to Bulgaria

Fall 1904

* Fleet Black Sea to Romania

* Army Sevastopol supports Fleet Black Sea to Romania

* Army Greece supports Army Bulgaria to Serbia (or vice-versa)

This moveset would give Turkey either two or three supply bases (of Serbia, Romania, and Sevastopol), and establish Turkey as the leading power on the board: with Turkey's defensive geography and Sevastopol and Greece in the Sultan's hand, Turkey will be almost impossible to eliminate (as we saw last year), and thus guaranteed to survive until the end of the war. However, those two or three extra builds will bring to Turkey to seven or eight units, allowing the Sultan to dominate both the land war against Austria and the naval battle against Italy: with such strength Turkey would be able to take on every neighbouring country and win.

Most astoundingly, this kind of plan still leaves Turkish Fleet Aegean Sea free to act: if the Sultan can manage to sneak the fleet into the Ionian, he will almost certainly be able to claim either Tunis or Naples. If Turkey chooses to move aggressively, we could well see a 9 unit-strong Turkey by the end of 1905--and as we saw in last year's war, a Turkey that controls Tunis, Greece, and Sevastopol is unstoppable.

Germany's involvement in this situation will be the real determining factor, however. Despite a lack of numbers, Germany's troops are in incredibly influential positions in both theatres and all across the board. Germany can effectively decide what happens in Holland, Sweden, Warsaw, Vienna, Trieste, Venice, and Romania! With this kind of leverage, Germany will certainly be the center of attention in 1905.

In the last three years, Germany has attacked France, England, Italy, Russia, and Austria-Hungary. Is there a coherent strategy behind this madness?

This year, the Kaiserine Lisa should be able to sit back and take the most favorable offers available to her from each nation. Perhaps it is time for Germany to stop acting as a patsy for others and strike out for her own benefit? If she plays her cards right, she should be able to gain at least one or two supply bases this year. The time has come for Germany to grow into a major power and take her fate into her own hands!

1903 ended with France, Russia, and Turkey as the three "big boys" of Europe (while all other nations hold at four units). Who will it be next year? 

"England Guides the Mighty Warrior"

"Sir William Warned of English Treachery Awaiting Him in Ayr"

"by J.R. Skelton"

NaPAULeon

Submitted by Anonymous.

1903

"Remember, it's not Personal"   Tsar Josh to Kaiser Lisa

SPRING 1903 NEGOTIATIONS

The Queen and Prime Minister discuss Great Britain's future in Europe. There are so many options . . .

France, Russia, Turkey and Germany around Europe. Almost the four corners at the same table. Should the rest be worried?

England continues on their own for now. How will the Scandinavian gambit work out this year?

The unseen Emperor of Austria-Hungary shows himself to exert his iron fist in the Balkans.

France points out opportunities to Turkey, who seems to take said words skeptically.

Austria-Hungary went South, then North. South again? The birds eye view provides insight . . .

England continues strategy on the big map, now joined by Turkey.

SPRING 1903 MAP

Alliances and allies shift, enemies become allies, and all the while little blood is spilt, but so much has happened. France sails North of England. The Germany-Russian stalemate over Sweden is decided by British troops, who seemingly tried to help Germany liberate the Holland that France had offered, but managed to hold on to. Austria-Hungary prevents Turkish conquest of Greece. Italy shifted around the Mediterranean. 

SUMMER 1903 NEGOTIATIONS

There is so much going on! Who can you trust? What will you do?

The specter of Turkish-Russian relations? Like a shadow on Western Europe.

Foreign dignitaries or journalists taking in the Great War.  A moment of silence for those who have fallen.

The pressure is getting to many of the leaders. Austria-Hungary might be facing shell shock.

More mass plotting: Italy, Turkey, Russia.

England and France overlook centuries of hostilities. But what are we going to do about the French Navy in the North Atlantic Ocean?

England and Germany enjoy a moment together. Relish it, for there will be little time for smiles in war time Europe.

FALL 1903 MAP

Shocking, simply shocking. Turkey thrusts at Austrian-Hungarian's Greek colony, causing the first real blood to be drawn in the game. While Austria-Hungary may have faced setback in the South, their soldiers march deeper into Russian territory. Italian troops return to the boot, but also stave off a German attack from the North. Germany now holds two Austrian-Hungarian territories. Meanwhile, the continent lies in shock as the French play bold moves, convoying troops from Gascony into the heart of England. A punishment for British involvement in Germany's attempt to take Holland? France grows to 8 units, Turkey to 5. Austria-Hungary has a fleet sink.

WINTER 1903

There is shock, there is anger, there is liberation, there is oppression. The borders of Europe are being redrawn and we are here to witness these events. For years later, people will ask "Where were you the day France convoyed into England?"

The winter brings a temporary end to hostilities, but it is a short break. No one knows what will happen next. But there will be blood. Oh yes, there will be blood.

Cafeteria Negotiations

What is this?

Russia and England?

Germany and Turkey?


If you aren't in these photos, then you aren't part of the negotiations.


Or were you negotiating with those not in these photos?

Duh duh dunhhhhhhh!

Declaration from FRANCE

As France, I have a few goals for 1903:

1. To train my troops into disciplined marching fighting machines. For this end, I will most likely keep marching them around in circles within France and Spain, as I have already been doing for several turns. They'll be so lean no one will ever want to mess with them! :)

2. To support my ally and neighbour in Germany. It's very true that Germany's position right now is the most dynamic and exciting. I think it'll make for a very interesting game to have a strong Germany in the middle of Europe! (A good counterbalance to a powerful French empire, too, if you're worried about that.) 

So I'd like to support Lisa as much as I can and see her develop. I'm really looking forward to seeing what she does with this exciting array of opportunities she's got right now!

Finally:

3. There's been a lot of boring, frustrating, uneventful *bouncing* going on in Scandinavia (Finland and Sweden) the last couple of years. Doesn't make for terribly interesting play, does it? So I'm going to do what I can to make sure something Very Interesting happens in Finland and Sweden this year, instead. Keep yours ears peeled! This should be fun.

There you go! French goals for 1903. I dare you all to post your own goals, too, if you have the guts for it. :)

Paul

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving vol. 1 (1902)

Friends,

Another year, another day, another war: much is afoot in Europe. What are the newspaper criers shouting in city squares across the Continent?

Here's the President's Report from the League of Nations, summarizing the most pertinent issues of La Guerre du Droit in 1902. (With a respectful tip of the hat to the old Archduke.)

I hope you enjoy!

France

---

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving

vol. 1 (1902)

The threat of war looms heavy across Europe. The minor skirmishes of 1901 taking place in the Balkans are giving way to heavy mobilization for military action by Turkey and Austria-Hungary. Serbia is occupied by Austrian troops, and Greece is now ravaged by two years of fighting. The Russian garrison of Romania is under heavy assault from Austro-Hungarian forces. 

In a similar fashion, the people of Norway, Sweden, and Finland tremble as heavily armed British, German, and Russian troops move through their cities and towns. It seems that deescalation is not in the books. What we have all feared is coming true: the major Powers or Europe are mobilizing for war. Meanwhile, German and Russian troops wander throughout Central Europe with complete disregard for national borders, adding to the spreading panic.

The Theatres of Conflict

In 1901, the French President issued a report predicting a few possible developments. These predictions were very close to the mark: 

* The focus of the fighting in 1902 lands squarely in three contested provinces (Sweden, Romania, and Greece). The Northern hot zone is Sweden, contested by Russia and Germany, with England a likely instigator. Who will manage to break through first? 

England is the only Power with actual leverage in the area, as they can easily manage to bring in support. Moving Fleet North Sea into the Skagerrak in the Spring could give the British a secure hold of Sweden, allowing them to attack successfully from Norway. However, to do so, England would need to bring back their fleet from the Barents Sea at the same time, so they could convoy Edinburgh to Norway in the Fall. (To do otherwise would be to risk losing Norway, a risk Britain cannot afford at this stage in the War, particularly because they would not be able to hold Sweden without a second army in Norway.)

Claiming Sweden this way would mean giving up on Finland and St. Petersburg, however: it will not be an easy decision for England. It would be much easier to convince Russia to withdraw and then take St. Petersburg via Finland, securing the entire North.

The predicted attack on St. Petersburg (via an invasion of Finland in 1902) also materialized, but was cleverly diverted when Russian troops moved in to occupy Finland themselves. Did Russia predict this invasion and move to forestall it, or was the attempt to occupy Finland the first stage of a land attack on Sweden? 

Nevertheless, the entire Northern situation is still a very favorable one to England: they have the initiative here, with many potential gains but no threat of loss. They can plot to take Sweden or St. Petersburg at their leisure and can also effectively decide who will own Sweden: England (via the move to Skagerrak), Russia, Germany, or no one. 

* The Southern conflict in Romania and Greece is a direct result of Austria-Hungary's powerful opening moves, which allows them to maintain Greece without a garrison and organize a powerful Eastern front in Serbia, Budapest, and Galicia. This Austria-Hungary is flexing newfound muscles! That army in Galicia, in particular, will be a heavy thorn in Russia's boot: Galicia is often considered the key to an Austrian/Russian war, with whichever country controls it having the initiative. Austria-Hungary's presence in Galicia gives them a possible crushing attack on Romania as well as access to Warsaw and the Russian heartland (through Ukraine). The Tzar will need to operate his full diplomatic powers to prevent disaster here!

What events will influence the outcome of the Southern conflict next year? The main one is the dynamic and shifting position of Germany, who now has the luxury of negotiating for many benefits:

* Both the Russian and the Austrian lines are threatened by brave and rapid German advance. 

In the South, the German army in Tyrolia gives Germany tremendous bargaining power, not unlike England's position of strength in the North. The Kaiserine can choose to support Austria into Venice, support Italy into Trieste (both attacks would be almost certain to succeed), or use that threat to ask one or the other to support her own unit into one of these cities. It's not too hard to imagine the Kaiserine going to both leaders and offering to support the country giving her the most favorable terms. However, she could also choose to attack undefended Vienna, instead. It's a lovely position to be in: the presence of German army Tyrolia is sure to have significant consequences--even if she chooses to simply sit and wait. For instance, will Austria pull back to defend against this army, giving up on their powerful Eastern assault?

However, this is where the next predicted development may come into effect:

* Given the moves of 1902, it is no longer possible to ignore the threat of a strong Russia/Turkey alliance: the Juggernaut is now plain for everyone to see. This alliance may be the cause of other diplomatic developments--indeed, it seems the threat of the Juggernaut has pushed Italy and Austria into alliance (or at least a mutual peace agreement).

The Powers in 1902

England maintains her stronghold over Scandinavia. She is the only Power to have successfully claimed a supply base in the region, and has been successful in keeping Russia and Germany out of both Sweden and Finland, allowing her to maintain the upper hand. Not a bad position to be in for England in the early game: she is likely to make solid future gains and can dictate terms when it comes to the possession of Sweden.

Russia is being pushed hard on all fronts: Finland, Warsaw, and Romania are all under attack or potentially threatened. The Tzar manages to hold his current possessions, but will need strong diplomacy to live through 1903 unscathed. His only likely gains this year will be Berlin (through deception) or Norway (if England neglects to maintain occupation and support).

France is in a very enviable position of strength and the current leader in terms of numbers. A peaceful stance towards her neighbours, combined with non-aggressive builds in the South, have led to steady growth through 1901 and 1902. This puts France in a position not unlike that of the United States in World War II: hesitant to engage anyone in war herself, she is hanging back and waiting to see how the war shapes up. She has a large military but is distant from the war, and will have to wait to see how things develop before she decides to pitch in one side of the war. 

It would take several years for French troops to reach any of the existing battle fronts, which is one potential excuse for remaining neutral. It looks like France has been carefully keeping her military out of striking range of any of her neighbours in order to maintain the peace. However, like the United States in World War II, will France be blamed for inaction? The French leadership will have to spend the Winter in careful thought, preparing for any possible surprise attack Pearl Harbor scenarios! In the meantime, who will call on French aid in their war efforts?

Austria-Hungary benefits from a strong opening and was the only country capable of organizing a massive land assault in 1902. However, the Russian/Turkish Juggernaut has stopped her troops in their tracks, and now the German presence in Tyrolia could potentially screw everything up. Will Austria-Hungary maintain the Italian alliance (her only means of making inroads against Turkey), or will she plot with Germany against Russia and/or Italy?

Italy has recovered and matured, moving conservatively and capturing Tunis: tactics reminiscent of the French. Her movements of 1902 opened her up completely to Austria-Hungary, but it seems that the twin Emperors saw the value of alliance over immediate expansion. Now Italy has two fleets and a colony in North Africa, and can hold her own: the immediate threat has passed. Her next few moves will most likely show her hand: she has options to move East or West through the Mediterranean, push North against Germany, or even turn on Austria-Hungary with Germany's help. 

One thing is certain, however: those Austrian fleets around the Adriatic will make future relations between Italy and Austria-Hungary incredibly difficult. Any combined maneuvers will risk exposing Italian cities to Austrian fleets: for instance, to move against Turkey, the fleets would have to pass within firing range of Naples and Tunis. In a truly trusting alliance, Austria-Hungary could offer to have Italy invade Trieste, destroying the fleet there and defusing this loaded gun, while fleet Albania occupies Greece. Then a much easier alliance would take place between the two nations. However, can Austria-Hungary afford to be that trusting? They arguably have the upper hand, and no incentives to discard their navy.

Turkey maintains her position, supports Russia in Romania, and even mounts a credible threat to Greece. Since the Sultan's only realistic avenue of invasion is North, against allied Sevastopol, it is hard to predict what Turkey will do: betrayal or a slow trench war in the Balkans? If the Sultan chooses the latter, he should be prepared for a slow, long siege, and look out for enemy fleets approaching from the West (a typical situation for Turkey's early game). However, if he could convince Italy or Germany to strike Austria-Hungary (or turn on Russia), then his fortunes would turn much more quickly.

The most interesting situation this year is that of Germany. A weak opening cost her Holland early in the game, but now her position gives her an incredible wealth of interesting options. If anyone has the space to make some drama in Europe, it is Germany: all eyes are on the Kaiserine!

Her fleet in Denmark can move into Sweden, West against England, or East against Russia. Her armies in Central Europe are positioned in a deadly standoff with Russia, but she has the upper hand: there's nothing the Tzar can do against "Kiel to Berlin" and "Silesia to Warsaw". Her army in Tyrolia really gives her an even larger variety of options, however. Not only can she move against Austria-Hungary but also against France or Italy if she slips into Piedmont (from where she can attack Marseilles or slide down onto the Italian peninsula).

If she can maintain good relations with France and England, Germany's fate is on the up and up. It is not too difficult to imagine Germany finding a way to take Vienna, Venice, or Trieste, and Sweden and Warsaw are also both likely: 1903 could find Germany building one, two, or three new armies. As is often the case in Diplomacy, one of the smaller powers also has the most influence on the entire board. No other country has anything even close to Germany's opportunities for growth this year. No other country has as many interesting immediate options. Will the Kaiserine be able to take advantage of this dynamic, unstable situation?