de Oorlog tot de Beschaving: Announcing the Edinburgh Concord A special wartime issue

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving: Announcing the Edinburgh Concord

A special wartime issue

A notable event has taken place during the Winter of 1905-1906 in the halls of Edinburgh. The leaders of France and former England have, after long deliberation, signed an historic treaty: the Edinburgh Concord of 1906.

The treaty was intended to be made public after signing. de Oorlog is now proud to present the treaty for publication in a special extra wartime issue. What effects will this treaty entail for the larger diplomatic scope of European relations? Is this a sign that Peace and Forgiveness, rather than War and the spirit of Vengeance, can exist among men, even in war-torn Europe?

This treaty will certainly be remembered as an historic occasion: the first signs of a modern era, perhaps? Can the Northwest Theatre find resolution through this treaty, leaving only the Balkan War as the focus of Europe, or will Russia or Germany demand to resume war in the West?

Article 2, in particular, is bound to impact the future relations of both Powers, who will need to consider the light this treaty casts on their future decisions.

---

The Edinburgh Concord of 1906

Signed at Edinburgh in this nineteen-hundred and sixth Year of Our Lord by President Paul of France, Prime Minister Ryan of England, and the Monarch Queen Claire of England.

Article 1 - The Basic Terms of the Treaty

• England and France pledge to set aside their past conflicts and move on to a new relationship which may be more fruitful for both parties.
• England is to drop all claims to Liverpool and London, and is heretofore known to the world as the Kingdom of the Scots, or simply Scotland. (International standard code "S".)
• France is to drop all claims to Edinburgh and Norway, and assist Scotland in reclaiming and defending these two centres to the best of her ability.
• The Kingdom of the Scots will be publicly recognized as a new sovereign state by Russia and Germany, with Edinburgh and Norway as their basic home cities and Edinburgh as their capital.
• Both nations pledge to mutual and complete peace in general. No plotting with third parties against the other, no preparing for war by troop movements, complete diplomatic relations and full disclosure of any intelligence related to the other's national well-being.
• Long-term mutual goal of France entirely vacating northern Europe to Scotland's advantage.
• Public French commitment to preserving and developing Scottish strength as a Power based off Edinburgh, Norway, and the environs of the North Sea. 
• Agreement of intent to demilitarize the North Sea at reasonable convenience (depending mostly on peaceful relations with Germany).

Article 2 - Conventions of the Treaty in the short term

• Scotland pledges to vacate London peacefully by the Fall of 1906, and allow French occupation thereof without any resistance.
• France pledges to vacate Norway peacefully by the Fall of 1906, and allow Scottish occupation thereof without any resistance.
• Scottish forces must move in full coordination with French interests until this basic position is established. In return, in the case of Russian aggression on Norway, France pledges to do everything possible to guarantee and fortify the Scottish position in Norway, including necessary supports to offense or defense, and any necessary negotiations with Russia. (An attack on French allies in Norway will be seen and treated as a declaration of war against France herself.)
• In return for French support in Norway, Scotland pledges immediate and full assistance in the case of a German attack on France, including making any requested supports, attacks, or convoys. 
• Similarly, in the case of a German attack on Scotland, France will do whatever is possible to defend Scottish interests.
• Additional: In the event that an attack on France by Germany leads to all-out war, Scotland will be rewarded for full cooperation with options in Denmark and/or Kiel as Scottish holdings.
• (Clarification: Scotland is not mandated to support French wars in the absence of German aggression, only in the case of a war initiated byGermany against France or Scotland.)

Article 3 - Conventions of the Treaty for maintenance of the peace in the long term

• Scotland pledges not to build fleets without explicit French permission, with an agreed-upon approximate long-term goal of a ratio of two armies to one fleet for Scotland future military. (In other words, their first two builds will be armies, the third a fleet, the next two armies, etc, or something similar. Non-negotiated fleet builds will be considered an act of war.)
• Similarly, in the case of losses suffered, Scotland will prioritize disbanding fleets over disbanding armies, unless negotiated otherwise with France.
• When national security permits, Liverpool is to be fortified by a French fleet, not an army, so as to remove the threat to Edinburgh.
• Mutually demilitarized Yorkshire, Clyde and North Atlantic Ocean at the earliest possible convenience (when that does not violate other articles of the treaty), for the further protection of Edinburgh.

Article 4 - the Emergency Clause

• In exchange for the survival and establishment of a living (and, hopefully, thriving) Kingdom of the Scots as a sovereign nation, France reserves the right to claim one Scottish Centre at some time of her choosing in the future, in the case of urgent military need. France may call on this option once (1), at any time of her choosing, with the right to claim one Centre peacefully and without Scottish resistance. Effectively, the survival of Edinburgh in 1906 will be considered a long-term loan of one Centre, to be reclaimed at some point in the future.

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving vol. 4 (1905)

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving

vol. 4 (1905)

The two major wars of Europe (the Northwest Conflict and the War of the Balkans) continue unabated. It seems a great many predictions put forward by de Oorlog and its staff have come to pass, although (or perhaps because) the leaders of Europe did not heed the warnings at the time. To wit:

* As predicted, England's rejection of the French offer of peace in 1904 and subsequent withdrawal was effective suicide for the English, while benefiting Russia tremendously.

* Austria and Italy's inability to see how closely their fates were tied in the current climate has led to the downfall of both powers. Initially very strong nations, since they have refused to stick together both nations' fortunes have plummeted, and fast. 

* Germany was able to take advantage of his highly dynamic position and his considerable tactical prowess and grow into a major European power in the blink of an eye. 

* Without resistance from the West, the Eastern Juggernaut expands rapidly, now controlling Russia, Turkey, most of Austria-Hungary, the entire Balkans, and most of Scandinavia. 

Let it not be said that de Oorlog did not predict the downfall of all central powers (Germany, Italy, and Austria-Hungary) if they are unable to organize resistance to the Juggernaut, which will now only pick up speed! For that is where Europe could be headed if the Western conflict cannot be resolved within the coming year...

The Northwest Conflict (or Anglo-French War)

Not too much has changed here: France and England continue to negotiate the fallout of England's refusal of the peace treaty offered in 1904. There is some maneuvering, but little decisive action. Has France gone soft? Indeed, the rumours have it that another treaty, another offer of peace, is being prepared. How will this situation resolve? Will England be able to make a laughing-stock out of an indecisive France, or will they rush headfirst into a rapid demise? Will France return Norway to English ownership, as promised last year?

Germany appears to have decided against peace, as military movements in the German navy appear to be mobilizing for war. Can Germany afford a war with his French neighbours? Does the Kaiser have the resources to fight Italy, Austria-Hungary, and France at the same time even as his situation in the South grows ever more dramatic? (After all, Russia is now within firing range of German-occupied Vienna, and Turkey has made it clear he will be gunning for Trieste, whether Germany attempts to claim it or not... the Juggernaut is quickly approaching German lines.) 

Realistically, Germany does not have enough forces to make headway against France, but he could choose to create a deadlock across the French/German border, which will last until one of the Eastern nations decides to attack the Kaiser's exposed backside. Not a terribly appealing prospect, but the Kaiser has made similar mistakes in past wars and is therefore at least somewhat likely to repeat the past.

Russia, meanwhile finds growth in Sweden and looks to be able to build even more in the near future: Budapest has most likely been promised as a prize for the Tzar in the South, and in the meantime here in the North the Tzar has extremely good odds of capturing Norway and Denmark in the coming year (particularly since a move to the Baltic at this stage would give Russia incredible negotiating and military power over Germany). How will the balance of power shift if this happens? What will the Tzar do with his newfound strength: two or three extra armies will significantly alter his negotiating power in the South for the years to come...

The Balkan War

In the Southeast, the fighting grows ever more fierce as Germany finds sufficient leverage to twist Austria-Hungary's arm into a combined attack on Italy. In the last two years, with his invasion of Vienna and Venice, the Kaiser has pierced the hulls of both Austria and Italy's ships and sent both Powers into a rapid decline. Now it seems unlikely he won't control Vienna, Venice, and Trieste for the next few years. Without organized resistance to the wave of German shock troops, the Kaiser seems likely to overwhelm the entire region. Can Austria-Hungary, Russia, and Turkey manage to organize a defense against him, or will Germany continue to dominate?

One thing is certain: the new Kaiser does not disappoint! His cutthroat and aggressive approach to military strategy has taken Germany from one of the weakest Powers (c.f. 1903) to a rival to the largest forces in Europe in only two years, and his military thrust shows no signs of slowing down. He has options for serious growth here in the Southeast, if he can move into Austria-Hungary's territory fast enough to get there before Russia and Turkey arrive en force. Can he win this race? All eyes are on Trieste...

Russia is also on the scene, but it seems the Tzar's cowardice is in the driving seat here, not rational tactical thought. Russia's position in mainland Europe is weak, overextended, and overexposed, while Russian troops carefully hold back from any potentially useful strategic positions, allowing his opponents to take the initiative when they decide to do so. 

The Tzar appears to be too afraid to do anything to change a situation which has left him a) entirely exposed to Turkey, while b) giving valuable Austrian cities to both Germany and Turkey, and c) producing not a single gain for Russia since 1901. Without additional military resources and more aggressive negotiation, the Tzar looks poised to fall behind his neighbours very quickly in the Balkan theatre: he will need to learn to both cover his interests and move aggressively where opportunities present themselves, or Russia will not survive long in the current volatile climate. This War is not for the weak-willed, sadly...

Italy moves into a naval offense on Turkey. However, alas, the Popessa has waited far too long. An attack which would have been devastating in 1901 (or even 1902) looks impotent and futile in 1905. The Popessa will need to be both careful and aggressive in the coming years, leveraging her available allies for all they are worth. Italy may yet recover, but all depends on careful play and smart diplomacy in the coming two or three years. One mistake and Italy, unable to hold her borders, will fall.

(One thing is certain: Italy and Austria-Hungary will need to cooperate from now on, or they will both be doomed to extinction. This was true before: it is doubly true now, plain for all to see.)

Austria-Hungary's situation now grows ever more desperate, with Germany invading from the West and Turkey arriving to finish them off from the South. Two possibilities present themselves for the resolution of this situation:

The First, Wherein Austria-Hungary Recovers and Survives

Austria-Hungary must find a way to leverage their diplomatic position into progress for their own nation. Fortunately, at least three factions have strong vested interests in Austrian survival: Italy (who needs an ally desperately for her own survival), Russia (who wants Austria to survive as long as possible instead of giving their bases to Germany or Turkey, who will be Russia's enemies in the coming years), and all the Western powers (France, Germany, and England), who should be able to see by now how Austrian demise guarantees the supremacy of either Russia or Turkey as we move into the endgame, and thus logically benefit tremendously from Austrian survival. Germany, in particular, appears to be the logical next target for the Juggernaut if Austria is to fall.

If Austria-Hungary can help one of these powers wage war on their enemies, they can find a way to become useful allies instead of a tempting snack. They could help Germany move through Trieste into Albania or Serbia, support Russia into Vienna, or support Turkey into Romania. All these options give Austria a chance at survival and regrowth. However, the main benefit would be for the Power taking advantage of Austrian leverage, for they would ultimately have the upper hand over their two other competitors, which could make the difference between losing and winning in the midgame. Germany, Russia, and Turkey are currently about evenly matched: with Austrian help, one can gain the upper hand over the others and grow to dominance, taking control of the entire Balkan region. Who will it be? Who will accept Austria-Hungary as a force multiplier to win the upper hand while the option still exists?

(Of course, Austria-Hungary will also almost certainly be supporting Italy into Venice sooner or later this year, as it's the only way to secure Trieste from Germany.)

What's the other option?

The Second, Wherein Austria-Hungary is Greatly Diminished and Cut into Minor Colonies

If, on the other hand, the three powers are satisfied with a three-way headlock, they need to find a scheme to partition Austria-Hungary in such a way that their competitors do not receive a greater share than they. This is difficult but not impossible: the writers of de Oorlog were approached recently by an anonymous intelligence offer requesting some neutral advice on a fair partitioning of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire. (After all, such an agreement coming from a neutral source is far more likely to hold sway with all the leaders than a partisan offer.)

Here, then, is the way such a treaty would operate. This is the only way to create a situation that is potentially useful for all three major Powers without destabilizing the entire region in the favour of one or another:de Oorlog's tactical wing has been hard at work at this solution, and is proud to present it in this issue.

* First, Vienna must be returned to Austrian hands: the Russian army in Galicia will support them there in the Spring.

* Since the Austrian army is busy recapturing Vienna, Germany will be able to support Venice into Trieste, reducing Austria to a single unit and gaining a build for Germany.

* Finally, Turkey will support Russia into Budapest in the Fall, producing a much-needed build for Russia (without which the balance of forces is laughably against Russia's good future).

The Austro-Hungarian empire has thus been partitioned: Turkey gains a build from Serbia (we'll overlook the capture of Greece as a separate matter), Germany gains a build from Trieste, and Russia gains a build from Budapest.

This is the only configuration which does not give one country overwhelmingly strong odds against one of the others; the continued existence of the Austrian unit in Vienna allows a "peacekeeper" to maintain this uneasy balance. A fair three-way split of the Balkans, to the benefit of all parties.

Overall, however, it is Turkey who is the most likely to come out ahead. With likely gains in Austria, certain conquests against Russia whenever he chooses to take them, and possible (but less likely) advances against an Italy foolish enough to let the Sultan into the Mediterranean, Turkey is an a supremely untouchable position. Even if all of Turkey's current neighbours were to suddenly ally against the Sultan, Turkey would not be threatened: there is no danger on any front for him. On the other side of the same coin, Turkey has options for growth on all sides. Turkey, therefore, is one of the strongest contenders for the victory in this game: it is just a matter of how quickly or how slowly the Sultan decides to exercise those options, for his nation is on the very brink of explosive and unstoppable growth -- as soon as Romania and Sevastopol fall to Turkish forces, Vienna, Trieste, Warsaw and Moscow will be quickly overrun, giving Turkey a force of about 12 units, at which point only complete coordination on the remaining board (an unlikely feat) could prevent a Turkish attempt at victory.

1905

England, Russia and Austria-Hungary get to the table to negotiate early.

What kind of deals are made in the dark?  

The always intrepid English are using new technologies to plan their next move.

Russia and Germany work out an understanding. What does the neutral observer think about it all?

Austria-Hungary stabs at the heart of Europe while discussing tactics with France. They both wonder what will Russia do?

So Austria-Hungary takes a moment to reflect away from the action.

SPRING 1905 MAP

Turkey pushes Austria-Hungary out of Serbia, who is forced to retreat to Albania. Russian fleets return to Romania after a long absence on their territory. Russia does some rearranging in Scandinavia but acts relatively defensive. Germany pushes farther into Austria-Hungary taking the port of Trieste. Meanwhile England continues to try and fend of French occupation forces. Most of Italy sits tight except for the Ionian fleet which shoots into Turkish waters.

SUMMER NEGOTIATIONS

The twin leadership of Austria-Hungary listens to French strategic advice. Will they actually listen? Can they stop the forces of Turkey, Russia and Germany? And what about Italy?

The negotiations become frantic around the small board - England, France, Russia and Turkey talk over each other while the Observer watches on.

Are there strong alliances here? Can anyone trust anyone? The option of peace has long since left.

The war room is busy, so for some for who the strategic planning has taken its toll, the secondary room is a more peaceful place to plot.

The dual leaders of Austria-Hungary and England respectively talk to each other, not noticing the former Kaiser of Germany's arrival to watch the carnage unfold. Watch out Italy . . .

Final moments before the troops head back to the bloody battlefield of Europe.

FALL 1905 MAP

Aside from the Italian fleet in the Eastern Med, Turkey now has dominance of the South East. With Italy distracted by foreign dignitaries, Germany and Austria-Hungary work together to capture Venice. Germany strengthens his Eastern defense line, and creates a new defensive buffer in the Blight. Despite open negotiations for a neutral Norway, France continues its advance into Russia's sphere of influence. Meanwhile England manages to hold on to London and trading Liverpool for Edinburgh.

There is a feeling of awe over the crowd. There have been victories and there have been losses.

A moment of silence for those who have lost. The winter will be a welcome break from blood and soil.

Message from France

Friends,

Once again! Simple this year:

1. Continue working to resolve the English situation, one way or another, whether peace or war.

2. Maneuver to defend against a possible combined German-Russian attack. (The board position suggests it's a strong possibility.)

3. Do everything in my power to make sure Germany and Austria-Hungary do not suffer any losses: both will need to be at full strength, or the Juggernaut will quickly dominate us all. So I'll do what I can, advise, plead, to keep these two countries as strong and effective as possible.

That's what I'll be doing, and nothing else.

Once again, I dare you all to do the same... anyone else willing to put their integrity on the line and post their goals?

Paul

Diplomacy Dedication

These kids are dedicated. Yes that's a pizza box as a Diplomacy board.

The Juggernaut

Dear friends,

And now, in the name of a better, more informed game, I am about to do something extremely un-strategic.

As I said earlier, the game has entered an important crossroads. The Russian-Turkish alliance, operating at full steam, has incredibly important ramifications for the future of the entire board. I encourage you all to see what the veterans of the game have said about this particular alliance: no other alliance in Diplomacy is as important or as feared. Ignore what these scholars and veterans have to say at your own peril.

I hesitate to send this to you, because there is one nation that traditionally benefits tremendously from a Russo-Turkish alliance: France. So I was tempted to stay quiet until now. However, with Russia breaking into Scandinavia and the two of them potentially taking out Austria-Hungary, a board unfamiliar with what will happen next will quickly become a train wreck.

Do with this as you will...

President Paul of France

The Juggernaut - or, the Ramifications of the Russo-Turkish Alliance

• It was not always thus. The Russo-Turkish alliance used to be frequently seen, and well deserved its names, ‘Juggernaut’ or ‘Steamroller’. Once established, it was simply unstoppable. The reason is easily seen: freed of the threat of attack from Turkey, Russia at once becomes as powerful as any two other countries; freed of the need to attack the mighty northern neighbour, Turkey has only one direction to go in, and can throw everything into the westward drive with single-minded violence. But the overwhelming strength of the Juggernaut is also its critical weakness: Austria’s bleats for assistance are sympathetically heard from Marseilles to Edinburgh, and whatever Austria asks will be done (or should be). If the Juggernaut is met vigorously from the outset, it can be held.

-The Game of Diplomacy, Richard Sharp (1978), Chapter 6

*    I have played many games in a juggernaut, though as Turkey I do prefer to ally with Austria, destroy Russia and then I always have the option to stab Austria or go round and attack other players... I think Turkey gets the bad hand if they are in the Juggernaut, as it will probably only gain 1 SC first year and if lucky two in the next. Russia can grow more quickly if no one notices the Juggernaut early on, and can go on for the victory. 

*    The Juggernaut is weak if it's caught early enough--that is, before Austria falls. Trouble is, global coordinated effort is required to put the brakes on it. I've seen too many Italys try to grab a piece of Austria instead of allying in the face of a juggernaut, and ensuring doom for the rest of the board. Likewise, too many western powers waiting too long to sort out their own local territorial squabbles before turning to face the bigger threat. 

That said, I'd expect most successful Juggernauts to end up as Russian victories...

*   Once a Juggernaut gets started, it's incredibly difficult to stop.

*   For Russia it's a great deal. I really don't see what's in it for Turkey, though. There's so much more potential for quick growth in the north, while the Russian southern fleet makes a stab relatively easy (in the game mentioned above I moved to BLA in about 1904 with Turkey's permission, since the loss of Ser meant that Rum was at more risk than I wanted -- I stayed there until the end of the game, using it for the final convoy into Ank). I can't think of conditions under which I would be prepared to accept a juggernaut as Turkey, except as a ruse to take the Black Sea in combination with a move to Armenia in spring 1901.

*   When I describe a Juggernaut, I loosely use the the term "steamrolling", as the expansion of Russia and Turkey are not only fast, but also speeding up as they go along. This "steamroll" only happens when little resistance is met, and it will be a fast and powerful "steamroll" as well, since sometimes contries do not ally together only because someone "thinks" a Juggernaut is coming. If you can keep Austria and Italy fighting, the "Steamroller" just keeps picking up speed--even a year or two is enough to make the advance irreversible and unstoppable.

--Various veterans of postal Diplomacy, compiled commentary on the Juggernaut on the Diplomacy list-serv, 1992-2001

The Steamroller or Juggernaut

Most postal Diplomacy players come to grips with the concept of the Juggernaut fairly early on in their careers - the notion that a strong Russo-Turkish alliance can just steam-roller over the rest of the board, crushing all beneath their wheels. I suspect that true Juggernauts are far and few between, in that they often break down early in the game if the going gets tough, but the mythology lingers on.  

It is true that if Russia and Turkey can reach a true accord then they have a lot of potential because they can control two of the four corner positions on the board, which means that instead of operating on the usual expanding balloon sort of strategy, they can just march across the board in a single line. In particular, co-operation against Austria can reap quick rewards, especially if Italy has been unwise enough to attack Austria as well. 

But it need not be so: any alliance can be stopped. First, it is imperative that any western power suspecting the emergence of a Juggernaut can get Italy on side. If Italy assists (directly or indirectly) with the partition of Austria then she will release the centres that the Juggernaut needs to gain momentum. Even if Italy has attacked Austria from Spring 1901, both should be prepared to bury the hatchet if a Juggernaut is on the cards. Of course it may be very hard to persuade Italy of the sense of such a course of action, as Italy no doubt believes that she has a firm alliance with Russia and that they will both move on Turkey once Austria is dealt with - though in practice Russia may be quite content for Turkey and Italy to face each other while Russia seeks gains elsewhere.  

One question worth asking about Juggernauts is “What is in it for Turkey?” Good question. Unless the Italian player is an idiot, a Juggernaut is almost certainly going to favour Russia - who will slip the knife in when Turkey is over-stretched and claim an outright win. Similarly, Turkey must be content with second place or he must stab Russia at the optimum moment. Neither player can afford to leave his back door open.

The Juggernaut remains a fearsome alliance, but not a very fashionable one. It requires mutual trust early on (something Diplomacy players are not very good at), but once established can do very well indeed, because to be stopped the other players have to take a long-term view (something else Diplomacy players are not very good at!).

Stephen Agar, Reprinted from Spring Offensive No.42

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving vol. 3 (1904)

After a long ceasefire, the brave fighters in the trenches prepare once more for battle. Will their generals ask them to die for their countries, or will they all fall with knives in their backs? 

Several predictions from a previous issue of de Oorlog... have come true in 1904, and are likely to shape the future of Europe. Two major conflicts are still the focus of fighting in 1903, dividing Europe into two distinct battlefields. Russia is the dividing line, acting boldly in both theatres... the question now is: will Germany also attempt to split his forces and fight on both fronts?

The Northwest (or English) Theatre

As in 1903, the focus of fighting of 1904 in the North was centered around the British, who had come to blows with both Russia and France. Unfortunately, the outcome is not too rosy for the English...

As predicted last year, the main beneficiary here is Russia, who takes advantage of the furious maneuvering happening in the Atlantic and waltzes into Sweden. Russian forces now effectively control all of Scandinavia and will most likely own both Sweden and Norway for the foreseeable future. However the Russian decision over Norway has important ramifications (see below)...

Most interesting this year is Russia's decision to build a fleet in North St. Petersburg. This move is bound to rain hell on French-Russian relations, as the only possible use for such a unit is an offensive against France. It is clear that the Tzar is plotting some Western conquests! In addition, however, it shows a remarkable overconfidence on the Tzar's behalf, since it leaves the Russians with a single unit to defend against Turkey, a single unit to fight Austria, and a single unit to protect against German attack. Either the Tzar has iron confidence in his diplomatic abilities, or this is truly a case of hubris that comes before the fall... 

France and England entered into intense negotiations at the beginning of the year: there was no easy resolution to their conflict. France offers England an offer of peace, but at a steep price: France wants control of the North Sea. There is not a single attack on English units throughout the Spring and the Fall, as France waits for England's answer. 

However, the English decide to go to war, instead. British troops withdraw West to fight against France. The French outmaneuver them, moving to occupy the North Sea and surround the British Isles. Worse yet for England, in the Fall the Prime Minister chooses to disband his Army Norway. This leaves England with almost no leverage: these choices have left the English with nothing to offer France. Peace will be difficult: with this series of decisions, the English may have doomed their nation to decline.

However, there are many surprising reversals in Diplomacy: many a nation has returned from a single unit to dominate Europe. England may hold out for a long time if they can accomplish two things: 1) to find a defensible position for their three units, positioned so they can all support each other, and 2) convince Russia to hold off on the invasion of Norway. In this sense, England's future (and the duration of the Franco-English war) is in the Russian Tzar's hands: as soon as Norway falls, England will be forced to disband another unit, and then this war will in all senses be over. What will the Tzar choose? To speed England's demise, or to draw out this war to keep the two Western powers locked in battle?

The Balkan Theatre

Meanwhile, big things are afoot in the South-East, although Germany is the only nation to make significant progress this year. And not surprisingly:

In 1904, the Kaiserine Lisa steps down from German leadership and hands over the Reich to Generalfeldmarschall Matt. This military mastermind earned numerous accolades in the last Great War, and is known for his military prowess as well as his ambitious and aggressive diplomatic approach. Generalfeldmarschall Matt was undoubtedly the most skilled offensive warrior of the last Great War, striking fear into the hearts of his enemies as both Russia and England, and his hand is felt immediately as Germany expands into Vienna and builds new armies in Kiel.

As predicted, Germany has a strong position and many, many opportunities for growth. However, as he himself saw last year, Germany is very vulnerable to attack via the Baltic Sea: will the Generalfeldmarschall move to the offensive, with no regard to his own safety, or has he learned valuable lessons in defense as well as offense since he last played his hand at war?

Italy holds steady, holding off attacks from both Austria and Turkey, but will have some difficult choices to make. There are no obvious avenues for growth for Italy, whose long-term success depends largely on Austria's survival. What will the Queen choose? Her decisions will depend largely on her understanding of the single solid alliance on the board: more on this below...

Austria-Hungary, as predicted, suffers continued losses from all sides and begins to fall into decline. However, as is often the case in Diplomacy, this smallest power (at three units) also wields the largest diplomatic sway. Why? Because the existence of a strong Turkish/Russian alliance changes the landscape of Europe in major ways (again, more on this later). Austria-Hungary will need allies, and fast. Who will offer help? Italy, Turkey, and Germany could all benefit tremendously from Austria-'s continued existence, and Russia could get a lot of mileage out of an Austrian ally in order to keep Germany and Turkey from growing too fast. This will be a very interesting year for the Austrian twin Emperors!

Finally, the combined Turkish and Russian forces survive the Austrian attack and maneuver into even more powerful offensive positions. With Russia likely to gain at least one build in the coming year, their alliance is on the verge of gaining overwhelming momentum over the Western powers, who squabble among themselves.

Russia has a tremendously successful year, and now no fewer than three nations' fates (Germany, England, and Austria-Hungary) hang on the Tzar's word. His decisions in 1905 will decide which of these three will fall and which will survive.

Turkey, meanwhile, is much less likely to expand any time soon, but occupies a truly unusual position: the Sultan has enough strength at the moment to hold against all his neighbours, and has them all on the defensive. In 1905, Turkey is in a truly unique position in that the Sultan does not need any alliance to survive and prosper: he needs no one's help, but can only look forward to prospects of victory in the coming years. All his neighbours except Italy are exposed to him, and even Italy needs only to vacate the Ionian for a moment in order to be completely exposed to Turkish fleets.

...

The big winners of 1904 are Germany and Russia, growing to five and six units, respectively. However, both still have many prospects for further conquests. Expect to see bold moves from both Powers in the coming year!

However, 1905 will also be a significant turning point in the history of the War. This depends on one thing: do the leaders of Europe understand the ramifications of the Russian/Turkish alliance? Are they able to look ahead and see what this means for Europe? A future document will explain the vital points which will determine which way the flow of battle will run in 1905 and onwards.