After a long ceasefire, the brave fighters in the trenches prepare once more for battle. Will their generals ask them to die for their countries, or will they all fall with knives in their backs?
Several predictions from a previous issue of de Oorlog... have come true in 1904, and are likely to shape the future of Europe. Two major conflicts are still the focus of fighting in 1903, dividing Europe into two distinct battlefields. Russia is the dividing line, acting boldly in both theatres... the question now is: will Germany also attempt to split his forces and fight on both fronts?
The Northwest (or English) Theatre
As in 1903, the focus of fighting of 1904 in the North was centered around the British, who had come to blows with both Russia and France. Unfortunately, the outcome is not too rosy for the English...
As predicted last year, the main beneficiary here is Russia, who takes advantage of the furious maneuvering happening in the Atlantic and waltzes into Sweden. Russian forces now effectively control all of Scandinavia and will most likely own both Sweden and Norway for the foreseeable future. However the Russian decision over Norway has important ramifications (see below)...
Most interesting this year is Russia's decision to build a fleet in North St. Petersburg. This move is bound to rain hell on French-Russian relations, as the only possible use for such a unit is an offensive against France. It is clear that the Tzar is plotting some Western conquests! In addition, however, it shows a remarkable overconfidence on the Tzar's behalf, since it leaves the Russians with a single unit to defend against Turkey, a single unit to fight Austria, and a single unit to protect against German attack. Either the Tzar has iron confidence in his diplomatic abilities, or this is truly a case of hubris that comes before the fall...
France and England entered into intense negotiations at the beginning of the year: there was no easy resolution to their conflict. France offers England an offer of peace, but at a steep price: France wants control of the North Sea. There is not a single attack on English units throughout the Spring and the Fall, as France waits for England's answer.
However, the English decide to go to war, instead. British troops withdraw West to fight against France. The French outmaneuver them, moving to occupy the North Sea and surround the British Isles. Worse yet for England, in the Fall the Prime Minister chooses to disband his Army Norway. This leaves England with almost no leverage: these choices have left the English with nothing to offer France. Peace will be difficult: with this series of decisions, the English may have doomed their nation to decline.
However, there are many surprising reversals in Diplomacy: many a nation has returned from a single unit to dominate Europe. England may hold out for a long time if they can accomplish two things: 1) to find a defensible position for their three units, positioned so they can all support each other, and 2) convince Russia to hold off on the invasion of Norway. In this sense, England's future (and the duration of the Franco-English war) is in the Russian Tzar's hands: as soon as Norway falls, England will be forced to disband another unit, and then this war will in all senses be over. What will the Tzar choose? To speed England's demise, or to draw out this war to keep the two Western powers locked in battle?
The Balkan Theatre
Meanwhile, big things are afoot in the South-East, although Germany is the only nation to make significant progress this year. And not surprisingly:
In 1904, the Kaiserine Lisa steps down from German leadership and hands over the Reich to Generalfeldmarschall Matt. This military mastermind earned numerous accolades in the last Great War, and is known for his military prowess as well as his ambitious and aggressive diplomatic approach. Generalfeldmarschall Matt was undoubtedly the most skilled offensive warrior of the last Great War, striking fear into the hearts of his enemies as both Russia and England, and his hand is felt immediately as Germany expands into Vienna and builds new armies in Kiel.
As predicted, Germany has a strong position and many, many opportunities for growth. However, as he himself saw last year, Germany is very vulnerable to attack via the Baltic Sea: will the Generalfeldmarschall move to the offensive, with no regard to his own safety, or has he learned valuable lessons in defense as well as offense since he last played his hand at war?
Italy holds steady, holding off attacks from both Austria and Turkey, but will have some difficult choices to make. There are no obvious avenues for growth for Italy, whose long-term success depends largely on Austria's survival. What will the Queen choose? Her decisions will depend largely on her understanding of the single solid alliance on the board: more on this below...
Austria-Hungary, as predicted, suffers continued losses from all sides and begins to fall into decline. However, as is often the case in Diplomacy, this smallest power (at three units) also wields the largest diplomatic sway. Why? Because the existence of a strong Turkish/Russian alliance changes the landscape of Europe in major ways (again, more on this later). Austria-Hungary will need allies, and fast. Who will offer help? Italy, Turkey, and Germany could all benefit tremendously from Austria-'s continued existence, and Russia could get a lot of mileage out of an Austrian ally in order to keep Germany and Turkey from growing too fast. This will be a very interesting year for the Austrian twin Emperors!
Finally, the combined Turkish and Russian forces survive the Austrian attack and maneuver into even more powerful offensive positions. With Russia likely to gain at least one build in the coming year, their alliance is on the verge of gaining overwhelming momentum over the Western powers, who squabble among themselves.
Russia has a tremendously successful year, and now no fewer than three nations' fates (Germany, England, and Austria-Hungary) hang on the Tzar's word. His decisions in 1905 will decide which of these three will fall and which will survive.
Turkey, meanwhile, is much less likely to expand any time soon, but occupies a truly unusual position: the Sultan has enough strength at the moment to hold against all his neighbours, and has them all on the defensive. In 1905, Turkey is in a truly unique position in that the Sultan does not need any alliance to survive and prosper: he needs no one's help, but can only look forward to prospects of victory in the coming years. All his neighbours except Italy are exposed to him, and even Italy needs only to vacate the Ionian for a moment in order to be completely exposed to Turkish fleets.
...
The big winners of 1904 are Germany and Russia, growing to five and six units, respectively. However, both still have many prospects for further conquests. Expect to see bold moves from both Powers in the coming year!
However, 1905 will also be a significant turning point in the history of the War. This depends on one thing: do the leaders of Europe understand the ramifications of the Russian/Turkish alliance? Are they able to look ahead and see what this means for Europe? A future document will explain the vital points which will determine which way the flow of battle will run in 1905 and onwards.
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