de Oorlog tot de Beschaving vol. 2 (1903)

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving

vol. 2 (1903)

Men, women, and children crowd into their basements and prepare for the sound of bombs falling overhead: it seems the prayers of civilians go unheard, for Europe appears to be headed not to a deescalation but rather towards increasing hostilities and even all-out war.

Two major conflicts are the focus of fighting in 1903, dividing Europe into two distinct battlefields. Russia is the dividing line, acting in both theatres... 

The Northwest (or English) Theatre

In the North and West of Europe, the action appears to be centered around England: British troops attempted an invasion of Russia in 1902 (via attacks on Finland and St. Petersburg), and in 1903 the English attack France in the Spring (Holland) and Germany in the Fall (Denmark). Who is England's real enemy? Or is England simply stirring the pot with the point of her sword?

It is difficult to decipher exactly what has happened here:

In the Spring, England disengages from the attack on St. Petersburg and invades Sweden, while orchestrating an attack against France with Germany. The movement of troops puts English forces in range to attack Denmark (via North Sea and Sweden), or to move against France.

Seeing these actions as a prelude to a full-scale invasion of the French Netherlands or their German allies, France moves to answer the threat, engaging in the very first French military action of this war. It seems France has finally been drawn from her peaceful slumber into a potential war!

England is outraged at the success of the French counterattack, which lands a raiding force in Liverpool. The French, however, claim that they is responding to an English conspiracy to destroy peace in the West. (The accusation being that England has instigated a war by convincing Germany to participate in an attack on France.) Will these parties be able to reach a reconciliation, or is there enough blood spilled on either side that the French-English conflict will escalate to full-out war? 

The French message here seems clear enough: it's one part "a conspiracy to break the existing peace will not be tolerated, and taken as a declaration of war," and two parts "don't mess with France!"

The main benefactor of a French-English war would be Russia, who now holds the initiative in the North and is likely to expand very rapidly if England decides to dedicate their forces to a long and slow trench war with France. Expect to see Russian diplomats fanning the war between France and England in 1904, and rubbing their hands with glee as the war escalates! There is no possible downside to this development for Russia.

Germany will need to weigh her options carefully: England appears to be trying to start a war between France and Germany, but British troops are very well positioned for a second attack on Denmark. If Army Kiel can be convinced to attack Holland (or defend Berlin), England can easily capture Denmark, which would put Germany into rapid decline (as the new weakest Power in Europe). 

On the other hand, if Germany and England are working together, with complete trust, moving the German fleet to the Helgoland Bight could make for a combined attack on Holland that will be almost impossible for France to stop. However, to do so, Germany would have to risk both Denmark and Berlin.

Will the Northwest/English theatre resolve peacefully or escalate to all-out war?

The Balkan Theatre

Meanwhile, the real war is raging in the Southeast: here, gathered around Serbia are the forces of Italy, Turkey, Russia, and Austria-Hungary, and the fighting for Greece, Serbia, and Romania is heavy and furious. Vienna, Venice, and Warsaw are also under heavy threat.

The main developments this year, however, are:

1. The full engagement of German forces in this conflict, and

2. the capture of Greece by Turkey.

As we will see, both developments will have a powerful influence on the political climate in the South-East.

Austria-Hungary's powerful offensive offensive is suddenly crippled by the loss of Greece! However, Austria-Hungary's land army is still in a powerful offensive position: their troops have advanced into Ukraine and from there have access to no fewer than four Russian supply bases (Moscow, Warsaw, Romania, and Sevastopol). It is almost inconceivable that Austria-Hungary will not be able to claim at least one of these cities this year.

However, they also have to worry about Germany, Italy and Turkey. Germany appears to be cooperating with Austria (not an unusual alliance in Diplomacy), but if Italy, Russia, and Turkey are allied against them, they will be in serious trouble.

Russia is the most exposed country here, with insufficient strength to hold Sevastopol or Romania without Turkish help. The Tzar's best bet, ultimately, may be to grab as much territory as possible elsewhere so he can build armies in Moscow and/or Sevastopol, thereby securing his Southern front. Otherwise, his only available reinforcements are the army in Prussia (since the Baltic fleet cannot influence events in the South). Capturing one or two territories elsewhere (most likely Sweden, Norway, or Berlin) would allow the Tzar to build in Moscow and Sevastopol and establish a strong border even if he suffers the loss of Romania (which is something he cannot prevent without German cooperation).

Italy has the second best defensive position in the current political climate, with armies in Venice and Rome and fleets controlling the Ionian.  The Austrian disband of Fleet Albania finally gives Italy control of the Mediterranean. Will Italy use her newfound dominance of the seas to establish a safer alliance with Austria or to take Trieste?

The question in Italy's mind should be: "Can I hold the Austrian mainland against Turkey and Russia once Austria falls?" Not an easy calculation, but a necessary one if she is to prosper in the long run.

The most interesting situation in the Balkan theatre this year is Turkey's position. No other nation on the board has Turkey's strong, unbroken lines, easy to reinforce against assault and equally rich in prospects for expansion. With Greece in his hands and a rapidly-diminishing threat from Austria, all the Sultan needs is to keep Italy turned towards Austria in order to quickly dominate the entire South-East.

A hypothetical moveset like the following would be nearly unstoppable as long as the current conflict continues:

Spring 1904

* Army Ankara to Sevastopol

* Fleet Black Sea convoys Ankara to Sevastopol

* Army Constantinople to Bulgaria

* Army Greece supports Army Constantinople to Bulgaria

Fall 1904

* Fleet Black Sea to Romania

* Army Sevastopol supports Fleet Black Sea to Romania

* Army Greece supports Army Bulgaria to Serbia (or vice-versa)

This moveset would give Turkey either two or three supply bases (of Serbia, Romania, and Sevastopol), and establish Turkey as the leading power on the board: with Turkey's defensive geography and Sevastopol and Greece in the Sultan's hand, Turkey will be almost impossible to eliminate (as we saw last year), and thus guaranteed to survive until the end of the war. However, those two or three extra builds will bring to Turkey to seven or eight units, allowing the Sultan to dominate both the land war against Austria and the naval battle against Italy: with such strength Turkey would be able to take on every neighbouring country and win.

Most astoundingly, this kind of plan still leaves Turkish Fleet Aegean Sea free to act: if the Sultan can manage to sneak the fleet into the Ionian, he will almost certainly be able to claim either Tunis or Naples. If Turkey chooses to move aggressively, we could well see a 9 unit-strong Turkey by the end of 1905--and as we saw in last year's war, a Turkey that controls Tunis, Greece, and Sevastopol is unstoppable.

Germany's involvement in this situation will be the real determining factor, however. Despite a lack of numbers, Germany's troops are in incredibly influential positions in both theatres and all across the board. Germany can effectively decide what happens in Holland, Sweden, Warsaw, Vienna, Trieste, Venice, and Romania! With this kind of leverage, Germany will certainly be the center of attention in 1905.

In the last three years, Germany has attacked France, England, Italy, Russia, and Austria-Hungary. Is there a coherent strategy behind this madness?

This year, the Kaiserine Lisa should be able to sit back and take the most favorable offers available to her from each nation. Perhaps it is time for Germany to stop acting as a patsy for others and strike out for her own benefit? If she plays her cards right, she should be able to gain at least one or two supply bases this year. The time has come for Germany to grow into a major power and take her fate into her own hands!

1903 ended with France, Russia, and Turkey as the three "big boys" of Europe (while all other nations hold at four units). Who will it be next year?