de Oorlog tot de Beschaving vol. 2 (1902)

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving

vol. 2 (1902)

1902 is a truly remarkable year: you will not find a better exemplar of the importance of tactical positioning in the Great War.

Aside from the ongoing squabble over the Balkans and the (apparently) peaceful invasion of Belgium by Germany, not a single shot was fired, not a single Centre captured.

And yet the balance of power has shifted so dramatically that the fates of several nations may be irrevocably transformed by the year's events.

Italy and the Eastern Theatre

Major developments are afoot in the East as Italy makes a stunning demonstration of the reach of his power and lands an army in Syria, deep behind Turkish lines. 

This is the famed Lepanto maneuver, one of the most powerful weapons in the early Italian game, and its impact cannot be understated:

Italy now has the knife to Turkey's throat in every way imaginable. The situation is analogous to France's position relative to England in 1901: should the Italian King twitch, he has the power to send Turkey to an early grave within the next two years. What will Italy do with this newfound diplomatic leverage? Push in the knife, or put forth a Devil's bargain?

Russia, in the meantime, finds herself besieged by advancing German troops in Prussia and the Baltic even as she makes friends with England and settles their conflict in the North by giving the English Sweden. The Russian position continues to be poor: while the country is defensively secure, the Russians have no realistic capability to expand and will need to sit tight for the foreseeable future.

Austria-Hungary continues to be the overall leader in the East: she has peaceful relations with Russia and military superiority over Turkey, allowing her to feel secure and comfortable -- a truly rare circumstance for any power in Diplomacy, but particularly rare for Austria-Hungary.

In addition, however, the Empress has two other major advantages on her side:

First, she sent an army into Tyrolia. This is a powerful diplomatic move, since it gives her leverage over Germany (by threatening Munich) and Italy (via Venice). An Austria who occupies Tyrolia always has the upper hand over both of her Western neighbours, and maintaining an army in this position gives her the diplomatic advantage going forward.

Second, and more importantly, she has a huge military advantage over the exposed Italy, her natural rival and largest threat in every Diplomacy game. She can choose to take Venice at any time, as long as current conditions persist, and is also likely to gain Bulgaria in the near future.

Due to these conditions, Austria is the most likely of the Eastern powers to grow in 1902, and closest to a truly stable position on the board. An Austria which can grow to six units and build a second fleet to claim the Adriatic almost always survives into the late game or goes on to win: the six-unit, two-fleet configuration is the first truly defensible position available to Austria, a power whose usual fate is often an early demise.

(A review of the two first Great Wars documented on the blog will show this principle in action: in both games, Austria went on to dominate European politics once she reached that six-unit mark.)

Germany and the Western Theatre

The most significant event in the West is the invasion of Belgium by Germany. It seems that Germany was able to convince both England and France that this would be a good idea, as English forces support him in (even at the cost of weakening their defenses) and the French retreat without a fight. What is going on here? A master plan by German diplomats? Is Germany playing both sides against each other?

The year in review:

England scrambles desperately and arrives just in time to forestall an immediate and deadly invasion from the French. With the gift of Sweden from Russia, England builds an additional fleet in Liverpool, and so has some chance of surviving the onslaught, but the French fleets surrounding the English isles almost always spells doom for the Queen. She will need to play a perfect defense in order to survive this battle: one slip and her Empire may fall.

England's best chance at survival, of course, will be to convince Germany to invade France. France has exposed himself to the Germans with his fleet-heavy composition of forces, and his position will collapse altogether if Germany moves into Burgundy. This would be the best possible outcome for the English.

France moves quickly to surround the British isles, and the President's offensive looks very likely to bear fruit very quickly: like Italy's position against Turkey, the French advance position here almost guarantees France a military victory over England. However, with the loss of Belgium, France has given up the sixth build he desperately needed to secure his borders and is now facing a very dangerous situation with his German neighbours. The balance of power has changed dramatically between these two countries! France no longer sits at the top of the heap...

Indeed, it is Germany who is the rising power in 1902: accomplishing the nearly unthinkable, the Kaiser has managed to capture six Centres with only four units in 1902!

This accomplishment allows him to finally build that second fleet he desperately needs to control the Netherlands against his French and English neighbours (both powerful naval forces in this War), and as soon as Germany manages that sixth build he will be by far the dominant power in the West. In this sense, Germany's position in analogous to Austria's.

However, the Kaiser is still fighting a unit short, and will need to find a way to defend both Holland and Denmark in order to secure his build for the Fall. This is not an obvious proposition, especially since his aggressive actions towards Russia have forced the Czar to bring his army to the Western front and may have pushed England and Russia into an alliance.

Still, the Western situation is developing is well as it possibly could for Germany: if he can convince France to keep attacking England, he will be able to weaken England to the point where the Queen's forces are no threat to him. Then, with his armies in both Belgium and Munich, the Kaiser can support himself into Burgundy at any moment, sealing the French fate. If he can time this invasion right (that is, just before the French can take advantage of their English gains and reinforce their homeland with some more armies), Germany will dominate the West utterly within the next few years.

New Developments

Meanwhile, rumours circulate below the hearing threshold of the major heads of government: in the streets of Europe, the people whisper of a something named OPERATION: LEORTES. Will 1903 reveal the workings behind the scenes, or not just yet?