de Oorlog tot de Beschaving
vol. 7 (1908-1909)
The two years of the mid-War period, 1908-1909, are considered by many authorities to have been a major turning point. Indeed, this period saw the beginning of peace in the West and a dramatic shift towards violent and bloody conflict in the Eastern sphere. Russia took the brunt of the double-betrayal, being replaced in a lightning-quick coup by Turkey as Europe's second-strongest Power.
Analysis and Forecast
The Fall of Russia from a dominant, 8-unit power to a nation at three units and likely on the way to extinction has transformed the War in a number of ways, as irrevocable as it is surprising.
What happened in these two years? The changes to the landscape of Europe may be summarized thus:
* Russia is reduced from a major power to a minor power, with Turkey taking over the Tzar's role as a potential finalist in the long-term outcome of this War. The Tzar joins the Alliance, swearing to enact what vengeance he can on his betrayers.
* Turkey moves quickly and decisively, capturing Budapest, Bulgaria, Rumania, and Sevastopol, which brings Turkey to 10 Centres. However, a last-minute stab from his German allies takes Trieste and an unforeseen retreat takes Serbia, leaving the Sultan at 8 units for now -- that is, until he reclaim those two provinces.
* Germany gives up on the hereto fruitless French assault to invade Austria-Hungary, reclaiming Vienna and capturing Trieste and Serbia. In these two years, Germany is transformed! The Kaiser's change of strategy in 1908-1909 takes Germany from a three-unit power in a losing war with France and exposed to both Turkey and Russia to a powerful six-unit force that can hold its own.
* Scotland finally reclaims Norway and now appears to have complete control of the Nordic theatre, in fulfillment of the (previously secret) Northern Plan of the Edinburgh Concord of 1906.
The Powers of Europe
Scotland, as mentioned above, now holds the North with a combined naval and infantry force, and builds more troops back in Edinburgh. For the first time since the early years of the War, Scotland can take a breath of relief, confident in their control of the entire North of the map, including the North-East corner of Europe--a solid and easily defensible position they will likely control for many years to come, most likely until the end of this War.
France, in the meantime, appears to have changed her strategy quite significantly. Surprising many by making peace with Germany and withdrawing from Kiel as well as the Helgoland Bight in 1908, France now takes on a rather passive role, her units holding or retreating everywhere across the map. With the Western sphere resolved in her favour, and Germany once more able to hold his own against the Easterners, it seems France is content to sit and wait while the Eastern sphere reaches its own conclusion. Which power will win in the East and emerge victorious, ready to challenge France for the final showdown between East and West?
Turkey seems to be the most likely victor here, growing rapidly to almost ten units over the last two years. Moscow and Serbia cannot hold out long against the Turkish shock troops, so Turkey is likely to match France in strength in the very near future: the attack on Russia in the Fall of 1908 was decisive, sealing Turkey's bid for European dominance for good. The Sultan, now controlling Sevastopol and Ukraine, can most likely count on that territory remaining his for the rest of the War: this victory is irreversible.
Russia is quickly fading as an Eastern power, fallen precipitously from second-strongest to a minor nation in danger of total collapse. The Tzar's only hope is that the Alliance holds, and that her military masterminds can deliver a saving grace for the Russian people. A few years ago, we at de Oorlog predicted a total destruction of Russia by Fall 1911. Whether this prediction will come true remains to be seen, but it is certainly a strong possibility.
Germany, as covered above, had a tremendous year in 1909, holding on to all of her own territory as well as now controlling almost all of former Austria-Hungary. Unlikely as it seemed two years ago (when Germany fell to three units), Germany is now not only up to six units, but even once more on the offensive, with both Warsaw and Budapest very likely gains for further builds in the coming year. The advice of the Finnish strategist (E. Tuovinen) appears to have borne fruit: in terms of the larger scope of the Eastern conflict, Germany is quickly replacing Russia as the third major power of Europe, balancing France to the West and Turkey to the East. If the Kaiser can make sure that the Fall of Russia concludes in his favour rather than the Sultan's (so that Germany can brace its borders against the Eastern edge of the map instead of being outflanked by Turkey) he will be in a good position for the final confrontation of this War; if not, he will more likely be eliminated between the two.
Austria-Hungary and Italy continue to fight heroically against an opposed force which outnumbers them. Austria holds off attacks from both Germany and Russia with Italian help, and Italy only manages to hold on to the Ionian Sea by the skin of her teeth due to a French fleet arriving on the scene. However, the German/Turkish conflict may open many doors to their further growth, as our intelligence networks report the Alliance has been discussing. There could be good years ahead for both of these smaller nations!
The coming year or two will find the next major turning point of the War in the Balkans, where a tight conglomeration of supply bases has drawn Turkey and Germany into a titanic struggle. The tactical details are very interesting: Turkey has a good chance of forcing Germany to disband in Serbia if the Sultan can cover Bulgaria. However, Germany has a similarly effective attack on Budapest, which could also lead to a Turkish disband. The world will wait with bated breath as the Sultan and the Kaiser enter a battle of the minds. Which will out-think the other? The mood is tense, with victory most likely going to the general who can best apply a common Diplomacy tactic: gaining a short-term advantage by forcing his opponent to disband on a Spring move. His enemy, then, fighting one unit short for the rest of the year, will be likely to lose ground in the Fall.
Nevertheless, the calculations will be involved, with much room for error on both sides. Germany can bring four armies to bear at the moment (up to a maximum of five, if Army Munich can be brought in). Turkey, although in theory much bigger than the German, is handicapped in this war by his massive three-unit fleet: only four Turkish armies (and perhaps the Albanian fleet) are close enough to be engaged in this conflict, and Ukraine and Sevastopol will most usefully be reserved for attacks on Warsaw and Moscow. This leaves the battlefield quite level, with the better strategist likely to return home alive.
Can either nation win over what remains of Russia, for a decisive advantage in numbers, or has that bridge burned for too long?
