de Oorlog tot de Beschaving vol. 6 (1907)

de Oorlog tot de Beschaving

vol. 6 (1907)

In 1907, the map of Europe takes on rather predictable lines, with a rag-tag Alliance of Western powers fighting a heroic battle against the forces of the Axis Triad.  

Germany, Russia, and Turkey are the Eastern powers which make up the Axis Triad and attempt to crush what remains of Scotland, Austria-Hungary, and Italy while mounting a full-on assault against France. The existence of the Triad has effectively forced the remaining four powers into a tight alliance, as their only hope for survival is to throw everything they have against the Eastern threat. The combined forces of Germany, Russia, and Turkey outnumber the Alliance and are ruthless in refusing all negotiations for peace from their Western prey. (With the exception of Germany, who attempts once more to fool France by accepting peace only to immediately break the agreement... yet again. The Kaiser's diplomatic efforts grow more and more predictable, it would seem, by the year.)

However, the Alliance holds tightly and outmaneuvers the Triad on every front. Looking at how the balance of powers has shifted by the Fall is quite revealing:

* Russia loses a unit to Scotland.

* Germany loses a unit to Turkey.

* Turkey loses a supply base to Italy (but does not disband due to their attack on German Trieste).

This creates a very interesting situation, as the balance of powers is now almost equal. If the Alliance continues to hold, they can continue to see potential gains, putting pressure on the Axis Triad.

Germany holds against France, but is exposed to Russia, and has already lost a supply base to Turkey. de Oorlog's prediction from last year holds: if the Triad is to continue, the next major event of the War will be the partitioning of Germany between France, Russia, and Turkey. Germany must change the basic alliance structure to survive: the Juggernaut always spells doom for Germany.

Russia slowly loses ground in the North. With one of the Tzar's fleets separated from the main force, he is effectively down one unit and will have difficulty holding the front with the remaining units. Worse yet, he is completely exposed in the South to Turkey, which means Russia's life hangs by a thread. On the other hand, Russia has access to two Germany supply bases: the Tzar thereby has the choice of continuing to risk his life by exposing his back to Turkey or taking out the German so as to defend his Southern borders.

 

Turkey, as usual, has the strongest position. Despite the temporary setback of the Italian raiding party in Bulgaria, by the Fall of 1908 the Sultan will be:

a) building at least one new unit,

b) in a dominant position against Italy, who has now been forced out of Turkish waters, and

c) facing several completely exposed supply bases on his Northern front.

The Tzar's only hope is to convince Turkey to send his fleets West, opening himself up for a land war from the North: otherwise, Turkey's victory over Russia in the endgame is a fait accompli.

Strategic Analysis

Little has changed from last year: 

The predictions about the outcome of the Juggernaut hold true (we urge long-sighted leaders to review these predictions in previous issues of de Oorlog, lest they fall victim to them). 

The Triad's existence forces the four Western powers into an alliance; Austria-Hungary and Germany will fall next, if the Juggernaut holds. However, the Juggernaut's existence grows more and more precarious, as in the present phase of the war, the benefits of the Russian-Turkish alliance are over for both parties. The Tzar and the Sultan know that they are now competing for the victory, whether openly or behind smiling, friendly masks. 

France, the secondary beneficiary of the Juggernaut, holds a strong position, but has reached the maximum extent of her possible growth. Now all France can do is hold the line and keep supporting her allies against the Triad. The Eastern situation simply developed too fast for any French ambitions for victory to come to life: the French leadership's simplest and most logical course of action is now to simply hold the line, claim their piece of Germany once Russia invades Vienna and Berlin, and attempt to grant opportunities for regrowth to her allies, who are close enough to the action to make meaningful builds. The smartest course of action at this point for France is to hold the line everywhere while slowly taking territory for Scotland in Scandinavia - incidentally, a fantastic outcome for Turkey, but not so good for the Tzar. How can Russia change the flow of this War?

The War's final outcome will now be settled in the East. If all the current conditions hold, the final stage of the War will begin once Germany is out of the picture and Turkey makes the inevitable march North, leaving France, Turkey, and whichever minor power rises back to major status as three "finalists".* 

However, given Russia's exposure in the South, the situation favors Turkey as the leading horse in the race: Turkey is the only power on the board who can take several supply bases next year and then be in a position to immediately claim several others. Once the chain reaction of builds and disbands at Russia's expense begins, Turkey will quickly outpace France, whose position is basically stagnant. (In the case of a Turkish-Russian war, we can safely predict that Turkey will reach 11 units by Fall 1909, as Russia's current position cannot hold Rumania, Sevastopol, Budapest, and Warsaw or Moscow from Turkish land forces. France will, at most, be able to match that number - even as Turkey's advance continues - but more likely will remain at 9 or 10 units for the foreseeable future, depending on whether Russia attacks Germany or not.)

*: The four minor powers - Germany, Scotland, Austria-Hungary, and Italy - can do a lot to sway the outcome of the game in their favour. We, the writers of de Oorlog, urge their leaders to review last year's issue, where the precise conditions for each minor power's regrowth are outlined. These still hold as each nation's best chance of becoming one of the finalists in the War's outcome. The chances are good for any given nation (as can be seen from the last Great War, where two of the three "finalists" were one-unit powers), although it is unlikely that more than one (perhaps two) of the minor powers will manage such a revival. Can these nations engineer those circumstances to take form? If so, they have good odds of explosive growth in the coming three years.